Cơ cấu mặt hàng xuất nhập khẩu chủ lực của Việt Nam-Asean trong bối cảnh căng thẳng thương mại Mỹ - Trung

Nội dung text: Cơ cấu mặt hàng xuất nhập khẩu chủ lực của Việt Nam-Asean trong bối cảnh căng thẳng thương mại Mỹ - Trung

1. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 THE STRUCTURE OF KEY EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF VIETNAM - ASEAN IN THE CONTEXT OF TRADE TENSIONS BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA CƠ CẤU MẶT HÀNG XUẤT NHẬP KHẨU CHỦ LỰC CỦA VIỆT NAM-ASEAN TRONG BỐI CẢNH CĂNG THẲNG THƯƠNG MẠI MỸ-TRUNG Phan Thi Hang Nga - Nguyen Thi Thuy Giang University of Finance – Marketing Email: Phannga@ufm.edu.vn Abstract The objective of this paper is to analyze the fluctuations of the Vietnam - ASEAN trade balance in the period of 2011 - 2019, especially analyzing the impact of the trade tensions between the US and China on the Vietnam - ASEAN trade balance. Accordingly, the paper analyzes the impact of trade activities on the economy of Vietnam and ASEAN countries. To achieve the above objective, the researchers used statistical analysis methods, descriptive comparison, and argumentation to clarify the issues in the study. The research results show that in the short term, in the period of 2018 – 2019, the trade activities of Vietnam and ASEAN were not much affected by the US - China trade war. However, the structure of some key exports of Vietnam tended to change and shift. This is considered an initial research result and a foundation for further research and analysis in the medium and long term. Therefore, the researchers obtained the overall and comprehensive evaluation results of the impacts (both positive and negative) of the US-China trade war on the trade activities of Vietnam in general and of Vietnam - ASEAN in particular. Simultaneously, from the research results, the researchers propose a number of recommendations for Vietnam to stabilize the trade balance in the coming time and constantly develop Vietnam's trade activities. Keywords: Structure of key exports and imports, trade balance, Vietnam – ASEAN, trade tensions. Tóm tắt Bài viết nghiên cứu xem xét trước tình hình căng thẳng trong hoạt động thương mại giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc thì có ảnh hưởng như thế nào đến việc xuất nhập khẩu hàng hóa của Việt Nam và các nước Asean. Nhóm nghiên cứu sử dụng số liệu xuất nhập khẩu hàng hóa trong 2 giai đoạn. Giai đoạn chưa có sự căng thẳng thương mại giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc (2011-2019) và giai đoạn sau khi có sự căng thẳng mại (2018-2019). Qua đó phân tích sự ảnh hưởng của căng thẳng thương mại Mỹ Trung đến cơ cấu mặt hàng xuất nhập khẩu chủ lực của Việt Nam-Asean, từ kết quả phân tích nhóm tác giả đề xuất các hàm ý chính sách để đảm bảo hoạt động thương mại của Việt Nam-Asean phát triển ổn định. Từ khóa: Cơ cấu mặt hàng xuất nhập khẩu, cân bằng thương mại, Việt-Asean, căng thẳng thương mại 1. Introduction The year 1986 is considered as a milestone marking Vietnam's guidelines on implementing policies in order to transform the economy in the direction of attaching importance to the role of the market and the integration with the world. Joining ASEAN since 1995, Vietnam has established a close commercial link with other countries in the region. ASEAN is an important trading partner of Vietnam. The studies on trade integration show the positive impact of free trade agreements on economic growth, especially in the studies on the trade between Vietnam and ASEAN countries [1], [2]. However, in the context of the US - China trade tensions, when the AEC comes into effect, it is necessary to study and re-evaluate the Vietnam - ASEAN trade exchange process over the past 20 years and the trends in the coming time. This paper contributes to clarifying the overall picture in the Vietnam - ASEAN trade relations, identifying Vietnam's industries and commodities with comparative advantages as well as factors affecting export growth, and thereby, forecasting the trends of Vietnam's exports to the ASEAN market in the context of the US - China trade tensions. China and the US are Vietnam's two biggest trading partners. Vietnam's import - export turnover in 2019 reached 116.8 billion USD with China (accounting for 22.6% of the total import - export turnover) and 75 billion 953
2. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 USD with the US (accounting for 14.5%). The US - China trade war more or less affected Vietnam's industry and trade, but the degree of the impact depends on the trade structure between Vietnam and the US and between Vietnam and China, the domestic production capacity of each country, and the export capacity of other trading partners of these two countries (Vietnam's export competitors in the US and China markets). Theoretically [4], when the trade between two countries decreases due to increased tariff barriers, in order to compensate for the import shortage, the two countries will have to import from other sources or boost domestic production, and to offset the export surplus, the two countries will have to reduce domestic production or find new export markets. In the short term, it is difficult to adjust domestic production immediately, so importers will have to find imports from other trading partners. This is an opportunity for countries to replace China in exporting goods to the US market and vice versa; simultaneously, the exporters of the two countries will find new export markets, creating competitive pressure for the domestic enterprises of import countries. 2. Literature Review 2.1. International trade is defined as the exchange, purchase and sale of goods, services, or investment activities between countries or territories. Forms and contents of international trade activities include: - Import and export activities of goods: These are the earliest activities to appear in international trade, constantly developing and still becoming the most popular and important form today. - Import and export activities of services: Import and export activities of services are the form of trade where exchanged and traded products are considered to be intangible, such as labor, technology transfer, logistics, international tourism, finance, currencies, etc. - International investment activities include sending investment capital abroad and receiving investment capital into the country in order to benefit the participating parties. 2.2. The theory of international trade policy International trade policy [3] is the system of appropriate regulations, tools and measures that the State uses to control the nation's international trade activities in certain periods to achieve set targets. The theory of international trade policy (also known as foreign trade policy) is the theory of the intervention of a country's government to achieve some purpose in international trade. Tools and measures to implement policy objectives (possibly to promote trade, possibly to restrict trade) usually include economic tools, technical tools and administrative tools. Normally, the classification of international trade policies is based on policy instruments, divided into tariff policies and non-tariff policies. According to the level of the State’s participation, intervention, and regulation in international trade activities, trade policies are classified into free trade policies and trade protection policies. For free trade policies, the State creates conditions for free trade to develop on the basis of the law of free competition, completely opening the domestic market for free circulation of goods, services and foreign countries’ capital. For trade protection policies, the State intervenes deeply into international trade, using protective measures to protect the domestic market from the competition of goods from foreign countries. Simultaneously, the State also seeks to support enterprises to expand into foreign markets. Tracking the happenings of the US - China trade war [6], [7], it can be seen that the sparking decision came from the US when the US announced increasing import taxes on steel and aluminum, and consequently, the two countries continuously took actions of retaliating against each other. To explain the US decisions, the US Trade Representative often cited the reason of "unfair trade" caused by China's market-distorting policies on technology transfer and intellectual property. 954
3. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 In order to enforce trade policies, there are two main instruments, tariffs and non-tariff measures. Tariffs are a form of tax levied on every export or import of a country. In particular, export taxes are levied on exported goods and import taxes are levied on imported goods. Import taxes will increase commodity prices, reducing the consumption demand for imported goods, and encouraging domestic manufacturers to increase and expand production size. As for exports, the fact is that countries not only do not impose export taxes but also have export support measures. Export taxes are often applied only to restrict the export of raw products and to encourage processing before the export. In the current integration condition, tariffs are gradually reduced because of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. The trade relations between the US and China are becoming increasingly tense as the two countries continuously retaliate against each other with tariff measures. The US and China are the two biggest economies in the world, and are the two major trading partners of Vietnam. The two countries' trade with Vietnam accounted for more than one-third of Vietnam's total trade turnover in 2017. The escalating trade tensions between the two countries will more or less affect Vietnam. On March 9th, 2018, based on the Department of Commerce's tariff recommendations, the US President announced the import tariffs on global steel at 25% and aluminum at 10%. China, the world's biggest steel export country, stated that the tariffs were a "serious attack" on international trade and assumed that China would take "tough action" if Chinese enterprises suffered damage. On April 2nd, 2018, in response to the US trade measures against steel and aluminum, China imposed tariffs on the US imports worth about 3 billion USD, including a 15% tariff on 120 US products such as fruit, nuts, wine and steel piping. In addition, 8 other US products are subject to a 25% tariff, including recycled aluminum and pork. The US responded immediately within 24 hours after China's first response. The US Trade Representative proposed a 25% tariff on nearly 1,300 goods imported from China. In addition to tariffs, non-tariff measures are also used by many countries. Non-tariff measures include measures affecting prices, measures affecting the volume of exported and imported goods and administrative and technical measures. In the current trend of trade liberalization, the use of non-tariff measures is required to be gradually lessened. However, in reality, no country unilaterally abandons the application of non-tariff measures and for various reasons and goals, countries seek to create and use newer and more sophisticated non-tariff measures. 3. The real situation of vietnam - asean trade balance in the period of 2011 - 2019 3.1. Vietnam – ASEAN trade balance Table 1: Export - import turnover between Vietnam and ASEAN 2011 – 2019 Unit: billion USD Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Export - 34.6 38.2 39.9 42.0 42.0 41.5 49.7 56.7 57.4 import Export 13.7 17.4 18.6 19.1 18.2 17.4 21.7 24.9 25.4 Import 20.9 20.8 21.3 22.9 23.8 24.1 28.0 31.8 32.1 Trade (7.2) (3.4) (2.7) (3.8) (5.6) (6.7) (6.3) (6.9) (6.7) balance (Source: General statistics office and the researchers’ calculations) Looking at the table above, it shows that Vietnam's trade deficit in the intra-ASEAN is the problem that was posed at the earliest since the beginning of implementing the renovation policy and opening the economy and is always topical on the forums. The trade deficit is necessary when Vietnam's economy is developing at a low level in many aspects and increasingly integrating deeply 955
4. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 into the global economy. In the trade relations with ASEAN, Vietnam always has trade deficit with the import turnover accounting for 55% of the total trade turnover. However, the average export growth is always higher than the average import growth (about 3 - 5%); therefore, the trade deficit is still under control and will reach a balance between exports and imports in the near future. The trade activities between Vietnam and ASEAN in the period of 2011 - 2019 constantly have growth and stability, especially in the period of 2016 - 2018 with a strong growth after Vietnam successfully organized the APEC conference. However, the US - China trade war in early 2018 affected Vietnam's economy; thus, the export - import turnover between Vietnam and ASEAN levelled off in the period of 2018 - 2019 compared to the period of 2016 - 2018. 3.2. The analysis of the impact of the US - China trade activities on Vietnam's trade activities In order to clearly see the impact of the US - China trade war on the trade activities of Vietnam and ASEAN, it is necessary to assess the fluctuation of the flow of goods and services from Vietnam into ASEAN countries and vice versa. The US - China trade war began in March 2018. Accordingly, the analysis and assessment will be divided into two phases, the first phase of 2011 - 2017 and the second phase of 2018 – 2019, and the analysis object is the structure of key exports and imports between Vietnam and ASEAN. 3.2.1. The impact of the US - China trade activities on the structure of exports of Vietnam and ASEAN: Table 2: The structure of key exports in the period of 2011 – 2017 Unit: million USD Product 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Phones and components 755 1.505 2.495 2.477 2.135 2.266 3.214 Computers, electronic 650 1.495 1.919 1.203 1.407 2.044 2.532 products and components Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare 741 922 1.006 1.165 1.216 1.410 1.573 parts Aquatic products 316 344 380 447 487 517 608 Means of transport and 588 708 867 965 1.162 936 1.083 spare parts Crude oil 1.435 1.817 1.616 2.005 1.456 339 716 Total export value 13.656 17.427 18.585 19.107 18.195 17.449 21.680 (Source: General statistics office and the researchers’ calculations) 956
5. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 The structure of exports continues to be improved in a positive direction, reducing the quantity of crude exports, increasing exports of processed products and industrial products in line with the roadmap for the implementation of the commodity import-export development strategy in the period of 2011 - 2020 with orientation towards 2030, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the global production and supply chain. Unlike the previous years, the motivation for export growth did not come from agricultural and aquatic products, but from industrial products. This shows that the efforts to improve business investment environment and international economic integration have really affected and facilitated the production and export - import business activities of enterprises. Table 3: The structure of key exports in the period of 2018 – 2019 Unit: million USD Product % % % 2017 2018 2019 2019/2017 Export Export Export Phones and components 3.214 15% 2.899 12% 2.323 9% 72% Computers, electronic 2.532 12% 2.196 9% 1.861 7% 73% products and components Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare 1.573 7% 1.780 7% 1.861 7% 118% parts Aquatic products 608 3% 668 3% 683 3% 112% Means of transport and 1.083 5% 1.345 5% 1.349 5% 125% spare parts Crude oil 716 3% 696 3% 746 3% 104% Total export value 21.680 100% 24.876 100% 25.364 100% 117% (Source: General statistics office and the researchers’ calculations) In 2017, there were six key exports of Vietnam to ASEAN countries including: phones and components; computers, electronic products and components; machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts; aquatic products; means of transport and spare parts; crude oil; accounting for 45% of the total export value of Vietnam and ASEAN. In 2019, the proportion of these six key exports accounted for 35% of the total export value of Vietnam and ASEAN; in particular, the two items: phones and components; and computers, electronic products and components decreased from 27% to 16% of the total export value of Vietnam and ASEAN. However, the total export value of Vietnam and ASEAN in 2019 increased by 117% compared to 2017 although there was a slowdown in the export value of 2019 compared to 2018. This can be seen that the total export value of Vietnam and ASEAN still grew but there was a change in the structure of items. Specifically, there was a decrease in the value and proportion of the two items: phones and components; and computers, electronic products and components (from 5.65 billion USD with a proportion of 27% to 4.18 billion USD with a proportion of 957
6. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 16%). Simultaneously, there was an increase in the export value of the two items: iron and steel of all kinds; and textiles, textile and footwear materials (from 3.04 billion USD with a proportion of 14% to 4.67 billion USD with a proportion of 19%). In the US - China trade war, the largest proportion of goods subject to punitive taxes was in phones and components, electrical and electronic products. Meanwhile, the US and China are the world's two largest consumer markets for these items. Therefore, when the trade war broke out, the enterprises in the US and China markets were more cautious and the consumer market changed in a negative direction. Once the enterprises in the US and China were affected and the consumer market became tighter, not only the direct export of phones and components; computers, electronic products and components of Vietnamese enterprises but also the export of these items to ASEAN countries were affected because the enterprises in ASEAN countries are also affected by the US - China trade war. When the economy integrates more and more deeply and broadly with the world, any change of one or any economy will affect Vietnam's export activities. Therefore, in order to be able to maximize the advantages and minimize the disadvantages of trade activities, policy management and administration agencies should have appropriate strategies for development as well as combine with the efforts and strives of the enterprises to improve competitiveness. The latest happenings from the US - China trade war as well as the fact that FTAs are about to take effect are potential factors in helping Vietnam to increase orders. However, in the current context, caution is needed due to concerns over economic policy changes when other countries impose safeguard taxes. Long-term difficulties include the fact that Vietnam is largely dependent on the import of input materials, such as certain types of yarns, textiles and dyed fabrics. In addition, the increase in minimum wages, social insurance and logistics costs (still much higher than those in Thailand, China, etc.) also puts pressure on textile companies. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which is a country with a competitive advantage in the garment sector, will benefit the most from the US - China trade war in two aspects. Firstly, the Yuan was devalued sharply against the USD; thereby, the Yuan was also devalued against the VND, helping enterprises to import fabrics and textile and footwear materials at cheaper prices. Secondly, these industries of Vietnam can gain more market shares of China in the US market thanks to more competitive prices as well as attract FDI, thereby increasing exports and creating many new jobs. In the US - China trade war, concerned about the risk of the origin avoidance of goods from China as well as preventing the evasion of trade defense and origin fraud for iron and steel of all kinds (This item is China’s competitive strength with a plentiful source as a supplier to the world), ASEAN countries shifted orders to other countries, including Vietnam with many competitive advantages of this item. As a result, the export value of this item in the intra-ASEAN increased from 1.71 billion USD in 2017 to 2.52 billion USD in 2019 and it became the leading commodity in the structure of key exports to ASEAN (accounting for 10% of the total export value to ASEAN). This can be seen as a great opportunity for Vietnam's export because the US - China trade war is not a regular condition in a market economy. 3.2.2. The impact of the US - China trade activities on the structure of imports of Vietnam and ASEAN: Table 4: The structure of key imports in the period of 2011 – 2017 Unit: million USD Product 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare 1.242 1.305 1.457 1.599 1.988 1.891 2.204 parts Computers, electronic products and 1.406 2.507 3.738 3.948 3.563 3.016 3.192 components 958
7. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 Plastic materials 1.085 1.116 1.144 1.244 1.228 1.147 1.346 Petroleum 4.956 4.589 2.796 3.339 3.601 3.483 4.356 Textile and footwear 185 193 234 262 317 285 954 materials Total import value 20.910 20.820 21.287 22.917 23.786 24.063 28.021 (Source: General statistics office and the researchers’ calculations) Table 5: The structure of key imports in the period of 2018 – 2019 Unit: million USD Product % % % 2017 2018 2019 2019/2017 Import Import Import Machinery, equipment, tools and 2.204 8% 2.525 8% 2.631 8% 119% other spare parts Computers, electronic products and 3.192 11% 3.485 11% 3.921 12% 123% components Plastic materials 1.346 5% 1.804 6% 1.607 5% 119% Petroleum 4.356 16% 4.573 14% 3.034 9% 70% Textile and footwear 954 3% 400 1% 406 1% 43% materials Total import value 28.021 100% 31.813 100% 32.066 100% 114% (Source: General statistics office and the researchers’ calculations) Along with the development of the economy, the import value of the goods of Vietnam and ASEAN increased steadily in the period of 2011 - 2019, with an average of nearly 6% per year. Simultaneously, the structure of key imports is also stable during this period, except that petroleum tended to decrease in 2019 (in 2017, the import value of petroleum was 4.36 billion USD, accounting for 16% of the total import value in ASEAN but in 2019, the import value was only 3.03 billion USD, accounting for 9% of the total import value). However, the decrease in petroleum import value in the intra-ASEAN was not much affected by the US - China trade war. The main reason is that the value of domestically produced petroleum increased from Dung Quat Oil Refinery, which is part of the national petrochemical industry development plan. Moreover, in 2019, many renewable-energy power plants (wind power and solar power) came into operation and integrated into the national electricity grid, 959
8. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 contributing to the improvement in the national energy security. The development of renewable-energy power plants is an indispensable development trend of any economy in the country's development process, contributing to environmental protection and climate change mitigation. In addition, the cost of renewable energy is quite competitive compared with petroleum, contributing to enhancing the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the process of economic integration. Furthermore, one thing to be noted for the import trade activities during the period of 2011 - 2019 is that the import of CBU (completely built-up) cars of all kinds tended to increase in the period of 2018 - 2019 compared to the years before 2017. Specifically, the import value in 2017 in the intra-ASEAN was about 996 million USD, accounting for 4%, but in 2019, the import value reached 2.15 billion USD, accounting for 7%. However, similar to petroleum, the increase in the import of CBU cars of all kinds was not much affected by the US - China trade war, but it was influenced by the reduction in the import tax rate on this item in the intra-ASEAN since 2017. Simultaneously, the automobile industry of ASEAN countries has developed and competed with developed industrial countries. In the short term, the period of 2018 - 2019 shows that the trade activities of Vietnam and ASEAN were not much affected by the US - China trade war. However, the structure of some key exports of Vietnam tended to change and shift. The US - China trade war caused instability of the market and the business environment in China. The Chinese stock market was severely damaged, making it difficult for enterprises to attract investment capital through this channel. In addition, China's non-tax measures will create an unstable business environment, making it difficult for foreign investors operating in China, causing the trend of shifting investment to other countries in the region. The multinational corporations operating in China will have to restructure the global supply chain in a way that reduces their dependence on the supply from China, and seek the supply from other countries in the region. This trend will be a great opportunity for the countries in the region including Vietnam to attract foreign investment, especially in the fields of manufacturing technology and high technology that are greatly influenced by the US - China trade war. 3.3. Conclusions The US - China trade war will affect the diversion of goods import and export such as: the risk of the origin avoidance of goods of some countries into Vietnam, supply chain change, and investment flow change. Vietnam's export is facing many difficulties because many countries have applied new forms of trade defence such as preventing the evasion of trade defence and origin fraud instead of applying technical barriers such as imposing anti-dumping, anti-subsidy and trade safeguard duties, etc. Therefore, it requires urgency in researching and changing approaches to promptly adjust and respond. Vietnam's import of goods from China increased sharply in the correlation and the geopolitical situation. The trade tensions between the US and China are increasing concerns about the phenomenon of goods imported from China but labelled “Made in Vietnam” to avoid origin, then re-exported to the US for tax evasion, especially in the context where Vietnam's export to the US has also increased dramatically in recent years. Simultaneously, a substantial increase in the US trade deficit with Vietnam may have implications for increasing control of imports from Vietnam. 4. Policy recommendations The structure of key commodities in the trade relationship with ASEAN mainly involves the goods of supporting industries. The competitiveness of exports depends on three basic factors: cost, quality, and order execution and delivery time. First, the development of domestic supporting industries can help reduce the production costs of assembly enterprises, and reduce delivery time due to reduced transportation and warehouse storage time of imports. Second, the production costs of enterprises will decrease. The cost of a product includes the cost of input materials, labor costs, production costs and logistics costs, etc. Depending on the characteristics of each industry and each product, the ratio between costs may vary. However, in terms of industrial products, the cost of input materials, components and spare parts is the biggest. The underdeveloped supporting industry will make it impossible for assembly 960
9. Kỷ yếu Hội thảo quốc tế “Thương mại và phân phối” lần 2 năm 2020 companies and final-product manufacturing companies to purchase products in the domestic market, thus creating import demands. Then they will incur additional shipping costs, insurance, time risks, and disputes if any. These costs increase input costs, leading to high production costs; moreover, the quality of goods is not guaranteed because it is impossible to control the input of components and it depends entirely on the quality of imported components. These factors reduce the competitiveness of the goods, which makes it harder for goods to export. In addition, the import also increases the trade deficit rate of an economy. A country with an underdeveloped supporting industry must import a large number of components to serve domestic assembly enterprises. The development of supporting industries not only enhances technology but also enables enterprises to purchase input materials in the domestic market, instead of having to import them. For the direct export of components, an important question is the international competitiveness of products. Only components that satisfy the following conditions will be able to be exported. First, these products must be cost-competitive by taking full advantage of the country's comparative advantages such as cheap and hard-working labor. Second, the components and materials used in the production process must be low-cost and the tax rate must be 0% or very low. Third, these products must be relatively compact in size and of high value. Fourth, the system of logistics services must be completed in order to minimize transportation costs and time. In other words, exported components must have high labor content, compact size and big value. In addition, these components must be products that do not require strict delivery time (because the export of goods requires the time to transport from one country to another, delivery time, and warehouse storage time). Overall, in order to take advantage of opportunities for the development of Vietnam's trade activities with ASEAN in particular and Vietnam's economy in general during the US - China trade war, the State management agencies and agencies administering macro-economic management policies need specific and feasible plans and strategies to develop supporting industries as a basis for increasing competitiveness with rivals and ensuring the stability and sustainable development of enterprises in the process of trade and integration with the regional and world economy. REFERENCES 1. Anh, D. T., & Son, N. Van. (2013). Vietnam Agricultural Value Chain in the FTA of Asian Region. FFTC. NACF International Seminar, 1–22 (10-2013). 2. Anh Thu, N., Van Trung, V., & Thanh Xuan, L. T. (2015). Assessing the Impact of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreements on ASEAN’s Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach1. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(6), 394–401. 3. Hoang, Xuan Hoa (2002). The theoretical and practical basis of the development of the trade relations between Vietnam and the European Union. Doctoral thesis of economics, Hanoi. 4. Nguyen, Thi Xuan Thuy (2018). The US - China trade war and its potential impact on Vietnam's industry and trade. Journal of Economics and Development, 255, 2-10. 5. Ministry of Industry and Trade (2011, 2019), Vietnam Export-Import Report Access to the websites: 6. ASEAN Integration Report 2019 2019 accessed on 07/02/2020 7. Preventing goods origin fraud: Ministry of Industry and Trade promptly takes action dong-kip-thoi accessed on 07/02/2020 961