Kiểm định giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch tại Việt Nam

Nội dung text: Kiểm định giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch tại Việt Nam

1. P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 141 02(45) (2021) 141-151 Testing the tourism - led growth hypothesis for Vietnam Kiểm định giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch tại Việt Nam Phan Nguyen Bao Hoanga, Le Duc Toanb,c* Phan Nguyễn Bảo Hoànga, Lê Đức Toànb,c* aInternal Affairs Board of Hue City, Vietnam aBan Nội chính Thành ủy Huế,ệ Vi t Nam bInstitute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, 550000, Vietnam bViện Nghiên cứu và Phát triển Công nghệ Cao, Ðại học Duy Tân, Ðà Nẵng, Việt Nam cFaculty of Accounting, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, 550000, Vietnam cKhoa Kế toán, Đại học Duy Tân, Ðà Nẵng, Việt Nam (Ngày nhận bài: 10/4/2021, ngày phản biện xong: 13/4/2021, ngày chấp nhận đăng: 20/4/2021) Abstract The study empirically investigate the relationship between tourism receipts, exchange rate and economic growth in the period 1990-2017 and define whether the tourism -led growth (TLG) hypothesis for Vietnam. The study implements Vector Error correction Model, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition with data in the periods 1990 -2017. The results point out that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tourism Receipts (TR) and Real exchange rate (EXR) are cointegrated, implying a long-run relationship between three variables. The value of ECM (-1) = 0.6388, this shows that speed of adjustment toward long run equilibrium is about 1.5 year. There is long run causality running between TR, GDP and EXR. In the short run, there is causality relation between GDP and TR, between EXR and TR. Tourism industry has contributed in solving employments, brought foreign currencies and the results give the evidences that tourist -led growth hypothesis (TLG) is accepted in the case of Vietnam in the period 1990-2017. The study also proposed some recommendations to develop Vietnam economy. Keywords: Real exchange rate; tourism receipts; long –run equilibrium. Tóm tắt Bài viết điều tra mối quan hệ giữa doanh thu du lịch, tỷ giá hối đoái và tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam thời kỳ1990-2017 và xác định có hay không giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt phát triển du lịch. Các phương pháp Vector Error correction Model (VEC), kiểm định nhân quả Grange, phân rã phương sai được sử dụng với dữ liệu từ 1990 -2017. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tourism Receipts (TR) và Real exchange rate (EXR) là đồng hội nhập, biểu hiện mối quan hệ dài hạn giữa 3 biến này. Giá trị ECM (-1) = 0.6388 cho thấy tốc độ điều chỉnh hướng về cân bằng dài hạn chừng 1.5 năm. Công nghiệp du lịch Việt Nam đã góp phần giải quyết việc làm, đemlại ngoại tệ và kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy bằng chứng rằng giả thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế dẫn dắt du lịch phát triển và ngược lại là được chấp nhận trong trường hợp của Việt Nam trong thời kỳ 1990 -2017. Bài viết cũng đề xuất các khuyến nghị để phát triển kinh tế ViệtNam. Từ khóa: Tỷ giá hối đoái; doanh thu du lịch; cân bằng dài hạn. * Corresponding Author: Le Duc Toan, Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, 550000, Vietnam; Faculty of Accounting, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, 550000, Vietnam Email: leductoan2002@gmail.com
2. 142 P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 1. Introduction Tourism became a bright spot in the Vietnamese Travel and Tourism is an important economy past year when the total contribution economic activity in most countries around the (direct and indirect contribution) of Travel & world. Travel & Tourism creates jobs, drives Tourism to GDP (including wider effects from exports, and generates prosperity across the investment, the supply chain and induced world. According to World Travel & Tourism income impacts) was VND 468,291 bn in 2017 Council [25], Travel & Tourism contributed (9.4% of GDP) and is expected to grow by 6.2% 10.4% global GDP and 313 million jobs, or to VND 497,303 bn (9.3% of GDP) in 2018 9.9% of total employment, in 2017 (World (World Tourism Barometer, 2018). The number Tourism Barometer [26]). of international visitors to Vietnam in 2017 reached two records: The highest number of In 2017, Travel & Tourism’s total visitors and the highest increase over the year contribution to Vietnam GDP is 20.6 US$ bn (over 3 million). Vietnam’s tourism is rapidly and Travel & Tourism’s total contribution to closing the gap with Indonesia (about 14 employment is 4,060,900 jobs; that is the great million), Singapore (17.5 million), Philippines (7 success of Vietnam Tourism. (Table 1). Vietnam million), Cambodia (about 6 million), Myanmar tourism received over 12.9 million international (about 33 million). visitors, an increase of 29% compared to 2016. Table 1. The Contributions of Travel & Tourism (Source: World Travel Tourism Council - 2018) Many modern tourism investment projects, such as “World’s leading package tour operator large scale and high quality in the key areas of in 2017" for Vietravel, the fourth consecutive tourism development such as Phu Quoc, Khanh “Luxury resort in the World” award for the Hoa, Quang Ninh, Hoi An, Da Nang have InterContinental Da Nang Sun Peninsula changed the image of Vietnam Tourism, which Resort, “The Newest Resort in the World” highlights the role of strategic investors in the award for JW Marriott Phu Quoc Emerald Bay country such as Sun Group, Vingroup, Muong Resort. Vietnam was voted “The most attractive Thanh Group, FLC, CEO Group, BIM Group golf destination in Asia-Pacific region in 2017” and big international investors. Vietnam and voted by the Pacific Journalists Association tourism has won many international awards as “The emerging destination for luxury travel”.
3. P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 143 Destinations of Vietnam have been more visitors would positively effect on the long-run known by friends and international visitors. growth of a small economy. Similarly, Brau et 2. The view of related literature al. [5], and Sequiera and Campos [24] showed that the rising number of tourists to the world’s The theoretical literature studying tourism main destinations is associated with a with the development model can be found in corresponding growth in GDP, enabling higher Mowforth and Munt [21], Black Jane Knippers growth and employment rates than in many [4]. From the different economic point areas around them. They showed how tourism- argument, there are arguments about the impact based economies have displayed faster growth of tourism on economic growth. on average than other economies. International Earlier, Hazari and A-Ng [10] [11] opined tourism may also contribute to long-term that if a monopoly power framework exists, growth, first by providing incomes that can be tourism may be welfare - reducing. Balaguer used to import capital goods or basic inputs, and Cantavell-Jorda [2] and Kim et al [16] which allows greater production of goods and found evidence that demonstrated how the services and therefore greater economic tourism business positively affects economic growth. growth over time. Some researchers proposed Dritsakis [7] found a strong causal that tourism-led growth appears when tourism relationship between international tourism stimulates across the overall economy in the earnings and economic growth in Greece. There form of spillovers and other externalities was also a causal relationship between (Marin, [19]). International tourism receipts economic growth and international tourism bring foreign currencies for the host countries earnings. This is, however, not as strong as the and might generate significant export revenues. former. The role of the tourism sector is not Specially, they are important resources in only to generate foreign exchange but also to offsetting current account deficits and negative impact positively on the growth of any balance of payments (Oh, [22]). On the other economy. hand, because of the linkage and contribution of international tourism to every sector of the Katircioglu [15] empirically investigated the economy, budget deficits also benefit from tourism-led growth hypothesis in the case of these activities via changes in tax revenues. Singapore by employing the bounds test for cointegration, error correction models and Pourier [23] noted the impressive economic Granger causality tests using annual data from impact of tourism in capital accumulation in 1960 to 2007. The results confirm the existence Tunisia. Secondly, international tourism of a long-term equilibrium relationship between contributes to increasing income by increasing international tourism and economic growth in efficiency through competition between local the case of Singapore; real income growth enterprises and those in other destinations converges significantly toward its long-term (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, [3] , Krueger, [17]). According to Helpman and Krugman [13], equilibrium level of 51.4% in the TLG model. specialising in tourism exports also allows local Husein and Kara [14] empirically enterprises to exploit economies of scale. re-examined the possible causal relationships Hazari and Pasquale [12] showed that a among tourism receipts, real exchange rate and favourable impact of demand of international economic growth by using annual data
4. 144 P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 (1964 - 2006) in the case of Turkey. The study Eugenio- Martin et al., [8] studied 21 Latin found the existence of a ‘stable’ and significant American countries. They found that there is long-run equilibrium relationship among real causality between tourism and economic growth. GDP, tourism receipts and real exchange rate They concluded that tourism expansion is (RER). Granger causality tests also indicated a adequate for the economic growth of low- and unidirectional causality from tourism receipts medium- income countries. Cortes-Jimenez and and RER to real GDP. Pulina [6] supported the tourism-led growth Akinboade and Braimoh [1] researched (TLG) hypothesis for Spain, while they rejected international tourism and economic it for Italy by using multivariate cointegration development in South Africa using annual data techniques and Granger causality tests. In the covering 1980 - 2005. The study demonstrated case of Tanzania, Kweka et al., [18] results the direction of causality between international showed that although tourism has a significant tourism earnings and long run economic contribution to growth, there is a low income growth. The result also showed a unidirectional multiplier. This may suggest that tourism does causality running from international tourism not have a considerable impact on income and earning to real GDP, both in the short run and employment generation in this country. in the long run. In the case of Vietnam, until now, we don’t find Meurer [20] studied the relationship between out any quantitive analysis about this subject, exchange rate, world gross domestic product especially the researches use Vector Error and number of travelers to Brazil. The result correction Model. Therefore, our study’s aims are: found that the number of travelers is quite First, to investigate the relationship between sensitive to world income and less sensitive to tourism receipts, exchange rate and economic the exchange rate. Exchange rate has an growth in the period 1990-2017. influence on revenues with a lag of four Second, to examine the tourism - led growth quarters, revenue don’t react to the exchange hypothesis for Vietnam. rate. The results found that the expenditures of 3. Methodology and data foreign travelers are not influenced by their costs measured in the currency of the country 3.1. Variables Description of origin. This study uses the data for the period 1990 Speaking generally, there were the previous to 2017, obtained from World Tourism researches investigated the possible causal Organization, World Bank and General relationship among economic growth, tourism Statistics Office of Vietnam. The data are receipts and exchange rate. Most of these defined as below: researches agreed that there were the long - run (a) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP - in relationship between international tourism, US Dollars) economic growth and exchange rate but a little (b) Real exchange rate (EXR - the of the studies were opposite. For example, the proportion between VND with USD) researches of Eugenio- Martin et al.,[8], Cortes- (c) Tourism Receipts (TR- in US Dollars) Jimenez and Pulina [6], Kweka et al., [18].
5. P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 145 Three variables are taken in their natural LTR = a0 + a1 LGDP + a2 LEXR (1) logarithms to avoid the problems of Where: a0, a1 - a6 are parameters to be heteroskedasticity. The estimation methodology estimated employed in this study is the cointegration and vector error correction modeling technique. 4. Empirical Results 3.2. Models Specification 4.1. Descriptive statistics The basic estimating equation is determined as follows: Table 2. Descriptive Statistics LGDP LEXR LTR Mean 24.60640 9.611528 21.43216 Median 24.51301 9.656777 21.19619 Maximum 26.11434 10.03390 23.08853 Minimum 22.59071 8.776908 19.33697 Std. Dev 1.051502 0.299209 0.999255 Skewness -0.194122 -0.648585 0.000499 Kurtosis 1.986439 3.286824 1.995041 Jarque-Bera 1.374380 2.059074 1.178268 Probability 0.502988 0.357172 0.554808 Sum 688.9793 269.1228 600.1006 Sum Sq. Dev. 29.85271 2.417197 26.95976 Observations 28 28 28 (Source: Author’s survey) The study’s variables are found to be each variable is also low, compared to the mean normally distributed as shown in Table 2. The showing a small coefficient of variation, while mean to median ratio of each variable is the range of variation between maximum and approximately one. The standard deviation of minimum is also reasonable. Table 3: Heteroskedasticity Test (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey) F-statistic 1.301161 Prob. F(9,15) 0.3133 Obs*R-squared 10.96055 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.2784 Scaled Explanned SS 4.915495 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.8416 (Source: Author’s survey) Heteroskedasticity test for used data, the or its order of integration. To implement this, result finds out that F-Statistic = 1.3011 ADF test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) and PP < F(0.05, 9,15)=2,5876, nR2 = 10.9605 test (Phillips- Perron) are implemented. The < CHIINV(0.05,9) = 16.9189. Reject Null results of ADF and PP are shown in Table 4 hypothesis, this means that model has no and Table 5. heteroskedasticity (Table 3) In PP test the EXR got the different 4.2. Stationary results stationary test but having the contrast in ADF test. Therefore, this gives more credence to PP Each of the variables in the model has been controlled to determine whether it is stationary test because of its validity even if the
6. 146 P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 disturbances are serially correlated and long - run cointegrating nexus among the heterogeneous. The mentioned variables are variables by using the Johansen method stationary at the difference levels, we (Johansen and Juselius, 1990) [9]. implement to establish whether or not there is Table 4: ADF Test Variables ADF Critical Value Prob8 Decision Statistic D(LGDP,2) -4.960 At 1% level = -3.737 0.0006 Reject Null At 5% level= -2.991 of no unit root At 10% level = -2.635 D(LEXR,2) -8.743 At 1% level = -3.737 0.0000 Reject Null At 5% level=-2.991 of no unit root At 10% level =-2.635 D(LTR) -6.372 At 1% level = -3.711 0.0000 Reject Null At 5% level=-2.981 of no unit root At 10% level =-2.629 * MacKinnon (1996) one -sided p-values (Source: Author’s survey) Table 5: Phillips - Perron Test Variables PP Statistic Critical Value Prob8 Decision D(LGDP,2) -6.471 At 1% level = -3.724 0.0000 Reject Null At 5% level=-2.986 of no unit root At 10% level =-2.632 D(LEXR,2) -9.551 At 1% level = -3.711 0.0000 Reject Null At 5% level=-2.981 of no unit root At 10% level =-2.629 D(LTR) -8.261 At 1% level = -3.711 0.0000 Reject Null At 5% level=-2.981 of no unit root At 10% level =-2.629 * MacKinnon (1996) one -sided p-values (Source: Author’s survey) 4.3. Cointegration test test statistics and the Max eigenvalue test The testing hypothesis is the null of non- statistics. Accordingly, the Eigen value cointegration against the alterminative of statistics and likelihood ratio detect one existence of cointegration using the Johansen cointegrating relationship at 5% level of maximum likelihood procedure. The Johansen significance (Table 6). approach on two test statistics, viz, the Trace
7. P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 147 Table 6. Johansen Cointegration Test Hypothesized Eigenvalue Trace Statistic Critical Max-Eigen Critical No. of CE(s) Value at 5% Statistics Value at 5% (p-value) (p-value) None 0.606 34.179 29.797 24.256 21.131 (0.014) (0.017) At most 1 0.287 9.923 15.494 8.820 14.264 (0.286) (0.301) At most 2 0.041 1.102 3.841 1.102 3.841 (0.293) (0.293) Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at Source: Author’s survey, 2018. the 0.05 level AIC (Akaie Information Criterion), SC Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating (Schwarz Criterion) and LR (Likelihod Ratio) eqn(s) at the 0.05 level test are used to select the number of lags * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the required in the cointegration test. The option 0.05 level lag is 2 (Table 7). MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Table 7. VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 0 13.68035 NA 8.83e-05 -0.821565 -0.676400 -0.779763 1 113.5650 169.0356 8.18e-08 -7.812693 -7.232033 -7.645483 2 130.9372 25.39018* 4.44e-08* -8.456710* -7.440555* -8.164094* 4.4. VECM (Vector Error correction Model) the changes in the dependent variables in order VECM is estimated to model the long run to force their movements towards the long run causality and short run dynamics. The aim of equilibrium state. The cointegration term is VECM model is to indicate the speed of known as the error correction term since the adjustment from the short run equilibrium to deviation from long run equilibrium is the long run equilibrium state. The greater the corrected gradually through a series of partial coefficient of the parameter the higher the short run adjustments. The size and statistical speed of adjustment of the model from short - significance of the coefficient of the ECM run to long-run. VECM is a restricted VAR measures the tendency of each variable to designed for use with non-stationary series that return to the equilibrium. A significant are known to be cointegrated. Once the coefficient implies that past equilibrium errors equilibrium conditions are imposed, the VECM play a role in determining the current outcomes. describes how the examined model is adjusting Considering our base equation (1), the in each period towards its long run equilibrium VECM model is specified as follows: state. Since the variables are supposed to be ALTRt = ao + a1 ALTRt-1 + a2ALGDPt-1 + cointegration, then in the short run, deviations a3ALEXR t-1 + pi ECM (-1) + e t (2) from this long run equilibrium will feedback on
8. 148 P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 Where A is the first difference operator, in this error correction estimation as the greater ECM (-l) is the error correction term, et is the coefficient indicates higher speed of adjustment error term, pi captures the long run impact. The of the model from the short run to the long run. error correction coefficient pi is very important Table 8. Model D(LTR) Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-statistics Prob ECM(-1) 0.638838 0.26622 2.39966 0.0281 D(LGDP(-1)) -0.541160 0.58650 -0.92269 0.3691 D(LGDP(-2)) 0.994028 0.52344 1.89903 0.0747 D(LEXR(-1)) -0.479523 0.89535 -0.53557 0.5992 D(LEXR(-2)) 1.105575 0.48182 2.29459 0.0348 D(LTR(-1)) 0.431016 0.25358 1.69975 0.1074 D(LTR(-2)) -0.079137 0.21781 -0.36334 0.7208 C -0.025138 0.08789 -0.28601 0.7783 R -Squared = 0.380413, Adjusted R-squared =0.1252. (Source: Author’s survey, 2018) ECM (-1) = 0.6388 and p-value = 0.0281. between three variables. F=1.13 < F(0.05, 3-1, 15) = These coefficients are statistically significant, 3.682. The results have suggested the acceptance there is the long - run relationship between of null hypothesis. There is no serial correlation, it LTR and other variables (LGDP, LEXR). means that the disturbance term relating to any Table 9 shows LM test, this test is used to variable has not been influenced by the disturbance inspect whether there is serial correlation or not term relating to another variable. Table 9. Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test F-statistic 1.132491 Prob. F(2,15) 0.3483 Obs*R-squared 3.279733 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1940 The results in Table 10 show the Pairwise - There is no causality relation between Granger causality test among the variables EXR and GDP analyzed. In the short -run, the results indicate that: 4.5. Causality test - There is bidirectional causality relationships between GDP and TR, between TR and EXR Table 10. Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Null Hypothesis Obs F-Statistic Prob. Decision LEXR does not Granger Cause LGDP 26 3.70978 0.0417 Accept LGDP does not Granger Cause LEXR 13.2584 0.0002 Accept LTR does not Granger Cause LGDP 26 2.38968 0.1161 Reject LGDP does not Granger Cause LTR 1.29338 0.2953 Reject LTR does not Granger Cause LEXR 26 1.15586 0.3340 Reject LEXR does not Granger Cause LTR 1.74240 0.1995 Reject
9. P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 149 4.6. Variance Decomposition This percent increase gradually over the time We employ a twice- year forecasting time and even in the twice periods it gets 62.25%. horizon and observed the relevance of the The salient feature is that predominant source variables over time horizon. Table 10 gives the of variation in LTR are LGDP (Table 11). In fraction of the forecast error vector variance case of LGDP, we see that in the fifth periods that is attributed to its own innovation and to 88.13% of the total change on the variance is innovations in other variables. The own shocks due to LGDP and this percentage reduces of LTR ranged from 70.75% to 26.50%. smartly in the next period, getting 85.22% in the twice period (Table 12). In the third period, 43.54% of the total change on the variance of LTR is due to LGDP. Table 11. Variance Decomposition of LTR Variance Decomposition of LTR: Period S.E. LGDP LEXR LTR 1 0.134692 29.24157 0.005826 70.75261 2 0.178498 38.41681 1.701710 59.88148 3 0.199946 43.54109 4.705508 51.75340 4 0.212796 46.50213 7.319267 46.17860 5 0.222456 48.79855 8.943363 42.25809 6 0.231269 51.11795 9.760876 39.12118 7 0.240165 53.58588 10.12877 36.28536 8 0.249289 55.99778 10.32051 33.68171 9 0.258356 58.10711 10.49505 31.39785 10 0.266976 59.81430 10.71443 29.47127 11 0.274904 61.16369 10.97304 27.86326 12 0.282108 62.25580 11.23657 26.50763 Cholesky Ordering: LGDP LEXR LTR Table 12. Variance Decomposition of LGDP Variance Decomposition of LGDP: Period S.E. LGDP LEXR LTR 1 0.054224 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.097072 98.23965 1.032134 0.728213 3 0.132000 94.47022 3.109630 2.420146 4 0.158235 90.76487 5.609362 3.625771 5 0.177058 88.13016 7.966359 3.903485 6 0.190897 86.54877 9.794103 3.657123 7 0.202023 85.70592 10.98296 3.311124 8 0.211922 85.33804 11.64877 3.013187 9 0.221324 85.24537 11.98839 2.766241 10 0.230445 85.25882 12.17423 2.566947 11 0.239219 85.26410 12.31771 2.418192 12 0.247496 85.22037 12.46974 2.309886 Cholesky Ordering: LGDP LEXR LTR
10. 150 P. N. Bao Hoang, Le Duc Toan / Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Đại học Duy Tân 02(45) (2021) 141-151 5. Conclusions and recommendations with signs of abuse of authority for personal Using VECM, this study includes EXR as a gains will be replaced. third variable and examines the relationship Second, to attract investment capital into between tourism receipts and economic growth improving socio-economic infrastructure. for Vietnam in 1990-2017. Infrastructure refers to ports, expressways - The results point out that GDP, TR and and connections key business locations. EXR are cointegrated, implying a long -run Vietnam should utilize resources for relationship between three variables. The value infrastructure planning and development, clear of ECM (-1) = 0.6388, this shows that speed of bottlenecks for growth, and enhance adjustment toward long run equilibrium is management capacity and policy transparency about 1.5 year. to boost disbursement of investment fund, - In the short run, the results also reveal that especially for public investment, in addition to there is bidirectional causality relationships accelerating the digitalization process in between GDP and TR, between TR and EXR. aftermath of the pandemic. - Tourism industry has contributed to Third, Training high-quality human resource solving employments, brought foreign It is in one necessary to be aware of currencies and the mentioned -above results strategies and demands of high-tech groups, to give us to conclude that tourist -led growth train tourist human resource for getting high hypothesis (TLG) is accepted in the case of level in service qualities. Vietnam should focus Vietnam in the period 1990-2017. on education development, ensure sufficient This finding is in line with the research of high-quality manpower for the next phase of Eugenio -Martin et al, [8], Katircioglu [15], development and select investment projects Husein et al, [14]. with high knowledge content and technology, as it is seen as the biggest ever opportunity to The study also suggest some attract foreign investment, not only from South recommendations to making-policy officers and Korea, Japan and some other countries but also manager as: possibly from big US and EU corporations. First, Implementing solutions to improve the business environment and boost the national References competitiveness. [1] Akinboade, O. A., & Braimoh, L. A., (2010). - State management need to be changed International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test. from pre-clearance inspections to post - International Journal of Tourism Research, 12,149- clearance inspections, the overlapping 163. org/10.1002/jtr. 743 management of a certain product will be [2] Balaguer, J., and Cantavell -Jorda, M.,(2002). Tourism as a long - run economic growth factor: the restricted, and the ratio of import shipments Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877-884. undergoing specialized inspection in the Retrieved from customs clearance process will be reduced. publication/24075033_ Tourism_ As_ a_Long- Run_Economic_ Growth_Factor_ The_Spanish_ - To cut logistics costs as well as enforce Case (accessed February 20, 2019) work discipline. Civil servants failing to [3] Bhagwati. J., & Srinivasan, T., (1979). Trade policy and development. International Economic Policy: improve administrative procedure and facilitate Theory and Evidence. Dornbunsch R, Frenkel J investment and business activities, and those (eds). Johns Hopkins University Press: Baitimore.
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