Phân tích mối quan hệ kinh tế và thương mại giữa Việt Nam và Trung Quốc

Nội dung text: Phân tích mối quan hệ kinh tế và thương mại giữa Việt Nam và Trung Quốc

1. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND VIETNAM PHÂN TÍCH MỐI QUAN HỆ KINH TẾ VÀ THƯƠNG MẠI GIỮA VIỆT NAM VÀ TRUNG QUỐC Chen Bingxian - Chen Yingxue Guangxi University for Nationalities Abstract: In the complicated and changing international context, good-neighborly relationship and comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Vietnam have been expanded in depth and width over the years. Although affected by world financial crisis, Sino-Vietnam economic and trade relations have been continuously strengthened. Bilateral trade shows good momentum of development. Mutual investment, economic and technical cooperation are promoted rapidly as well as output of labor service is going up. Key words: China; Vietnam; Current Economic and Trade Relations; Analysis Tóm tắt: Trong bối cảnh quốc tế đang thay đổi và ngày càng phức tạp hiện nay, mối quan hệ láng giềng thân thiện và đối tác chiến lược toàn diện giữa Việt Nam và Trung Quốc đã được mở rộng cả về chiều rộng và chiều sâu trong nhiều năm qua. Dù phải chịu tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính toàn cầu, mối quan hệ kinh tế và thương mại Việt – Trung vẫn liên tục được củng cố. Hiệp định thương mại song phương thể hiện động lực phát triển tích cực. Hợp tác đầu tư, kinh tế và kỹ thuật giữa hai quốc gia tăng trưởng nhanh chóng cũng như kết quả dịch vụ lao động đồng thời cũng được nâng cao. Key words: China; Vietnam; Current Economic and Trade Relations; Analysis Since signed The Demarcation Agreement on the Territorial Waters, Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf of Beibu Gulf between People's Republic of China and Socialist Republic of Vietnam, China and Vietnam had basically solved the demarcation problem of land and maritime border. Since March 2002, China has treated Vietnam as most favored nation (MFN). In 2002, China Premier Zhu Rongji, with leaders of 10 ASEAN countries, signed the Framework Agreement on China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Cooperation in Phnom Penh. In 2003, China and ASEAN inaugurated an Agreement on China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA). In 2004, China and Vietnam concluded a Cooperative Strategy of "Two Corridors and one Ring" which has been later under the GMS cooperation framework. Since Vietnam joined in WTO in 2006, the border trade between China and Vietnam has been placed under the WTO framework. All these advantageous situations and strategies have pushed Sino-Vietnam economic and trade relations to a climax. Multiple regional cooperation mechanisms have not only boosted the rapid development of economy and trade of both countries, but also vigorously promoted domestic economic growth and bilateral relations. 168
2. 1. Trade Scale and Commodity Composition In recent years, Sino-Vietnam trade has shown a good momentum of development, and the trade scale has expanded unceasingly. At the same time the commodity composition has been relatively stable, with little change. 1.1. Trade Scale Since 2004, China has become Vietnam's largest trading partner for years. Import and export between China and Vietnam have grown rapidly and the trade scale have achieved a saltatory rising. In 2007, bilateral trade volume reached $15.85 billion which met the goal of $15 billion proposed by top officials of two countries for 2010, three years ahead of the schedule. In 2008, it broke through $20 billion. After the outbreak of world economic crisis, the bilateral trade was still maintaining the momentum of rapid development. As the total volume of imports and exports has been growing, however, Vietnam's trade deficit with China was constantly expanding. According to the statistics of Vietnam customs, bilateral total import and export amounted to $41.173 billion in 2012, with a year-on-year growth of 15%; Vietnam posted a trade deficit of $16.397 billion, [1] among which Vietnam's exports to China reached $12.388 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11%; imports reached $28.785 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17%, accounted for 25.3% of Vietnam national total imports. China continued to be Vietnam's largest exporter. Although statistics of Vietnam and China exit deviation, both sides found that bilateral trade was imbalance. According to the figures of China's General Administration of Customs, the trade volume between China and Vietnam in 2012 amounted to $50.439 billion, an increase of 25.4% over the same period of last year, among which China's exports reached $34.21 billion, up 17.6%, imports reached $16.229 billion, up 46%.[3] Table 1. Trade Statistics between Vienam and China (US$ billion) Export Import Import and Export Deficit Year Total Increase % Total Increase% Total Increase% Total 2007 3.35 10.78 12.5 69.15 15.85 52.18 9.150 2008 4.536 35.12 15.652 25.00 20.187 27.36 11.112 2009 4.909 8.23 16.441 5.04 21.345 5.76 11.532 2010 7.309 48.89 20.019 21.76 27.327 28.00 12.710 2011 11.125 52.21 24.593 22.85 35.718 30.71 13.468 2012 12.388 11.00 28.785 17.00 41.173 15.00 16.397 Sources: The statistis is quoted from Vietnam customs 1.2 Commodity Composition In recent years, Vietnam’s imports from China in composition mainly unchanged, most commodities are those couldn’t be produced or in capacity crunch, such as machinery, equipment and spare parts, production or processing products of raw materials, 169
3. textiles, iron and steel, etc. According to the statistics of Ministry of Industry & Trade of Vietnam, total imports from China amounted to $28.785 billion, among which machinery and equipment accounted for 30% of total imports, raw material of processed products accounted for 60% of total imports which the remaining 10% was daily products. Currently, Vietnam's economy is based on processed products and its export processing products are highly dependent on imports of raw materials from China. [4] Because of the difference of resources endowment, in general, Vietnam's exports to China are given priority to resource-consuming products and agricultural products. Over 100 kinds of products in the current exports can be divided into three categories, the first category is agricultural, forestry and aquatic products, such as vegetables, fruits, natural rubber, coffee, cashew nuts, rice, tapioca starch, snakes, turtles, etc, accounted for 30% of Vietnam's total exports to China; the second is industry products such as textiles, shoes, wire, cable, plastic products, electronic products and spare parts, mechanical products, etc, accounted for 30%; the third is raw materials, fuel and mineral products, such as coal, rubber, crude oil and other minerals, approximately accounted for 30%.[5] Table 2 Main Trade Products between China and Vietnam in 2012 (US$ million) Imports Total Exports Total machinery, equipment and computer, electronic 5190.7 1892.2 spare parts, tools products and spare parts telephone, mobile phone and 3425.5 rubber 1326.5 its spare parts computer, electronic cassava and processed 3335.7 1179.9 products and spare parts cassava products textile 3040.8 raw oil 1013.6 steel 1756.6 rice 898.4 Sources: Report of China Market in 2012, Administrative Office of International Relations, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce for Industry and Commerce, p.15, February 19, 2013. 2. Scale of Investment and Changes Over the years, mutual investment projects between China and Vietnam have been growing rapidly. The scale of investment is expanding, the ways of investment are more diversified as well as the fields of investment are enlarged. 2.1 Scale of Investment After entering the 21st century, project quantity and amount of China's investment in Vietnam have been growing rapidly. From the normalization of China-Vietnam relations to March 2001, China has invested 98 projects in Vietnam and its contract value reached $210.3million, ranked 22 among all investors. By the end of 2004, 310 Chinese enterprises have invested in Vietnam and its amount reached $614 million. [6] (p.179.)By 2009, China has invested 657 projects and reached $2.674 billion, ranked 11. [7]According to the statistics 170
4. of Vietnam's Ministry of Planning and Investment, by mid December 2012, China has invested 894 projects and its registered investment capital reached $4.711 billion, ranked 13. According to the statistics of General Statistics Office of Vietnam, from January to mid December 2012, 69 Chinese enterprises were added to registered in Vietnam and its amount reached $302 million, ranked 9. [8]China's direct investment in Vietnam mainly concentrated in the fields of processing, manufacturing and mineral resources development, accounted for 70% of total projects and 60% of total investment, followed by the real estate investment which was accounted for 14% of total investment. [1] Vietnam is engaged in domestic economic construction, so it invests less in other countries, including China. According to the statistics of Vietnamese Chamber of Commerce for Industry and Commerce, by April 5, 2012, Vietnam has invested 10 projects which were mainly concentrated in the service sector and registered investment amount was $1.3 million. [9] 2.2 Modes of Investment and location Changes According to the statistics of Ministry of Industry & Trade of Vietnam, the main mode of China’s investment in Vietnam was joint venture and mainly concentrated in Ho Chi Minh city, Hanoi, Haiphong where the infrastructure were relatively well-grounded. The fields of investment are mainly in industry, manufacturing, and farming. Since 2007, many large Chinese companies carried out large investment projects in Vietnam. After 2009, the ways of China’s investment changed a lot that proprietorship enterprises have been the majority. Back then, China invested 657 projects in total, including 441 Chinese proprietorship enterprises, made up nearly two thirds. [10] Table 3 modes of China’s investment in Vietnam in 2009 Ratio in total investment Order Ways of investment Quantity projects 1 100% China’s investment 441 67% 2 Joint venture 169 25% Share or 3 47 8% cooperation agreement Total numbers of projects 657 100% Sources: Status Report on China's investment in Vietnam, Foreign Investment Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, March 15, 2010. Areas of China’s investment are also expanded. In 2009, China mainly invested in five large provinces and cities, among which 112 investment projects in Hanoi, 60 in Ho Chi Minh, 52 in Binh Duong, 43 in Hai Phong and 37 in Quang Ninh. Because of a dense population, these places are easy to absorb labors and infrastructure is relatively complete and transportation is convenient. Besides, Chinese enterprises are also beginning to invest in some border provinces in northern Vietnam, among which 26 investment projects in Laokai, 20 in lang son, 7 in Cao Bang and 2 in Lai Chau. [7] 171
5. Table 4 Investments of Some Large Chinese Enterprises in Vietnam by 2007 (US$ million) Total Name of enterprise Area of investment Project description investment FUCO co., LTD Fumei idustrial zone in Vung tau city of southern billet 18.00 Vietnam Shenzhen Shenyue Joint Haiphong idustrial zone Infrastructure in 17.50 Investment Co.,Ltd of northern Vietnam industrial area Qianjiang Tien Giang province in Industrial area、 Investment Management southern Vietnam 10.00 real estate co., Ltd. Orient Company Dong Nai province in Shoes 6 southern Vietnam Taiping Steelmaking and Thai Binh province in Steelmaking, steel 3.3 Steelrolling Factory northern Vietnam rolling Sources: 2009 Annual Report by Foreign Investment Agency, Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam 3. Economic and Technical Cooperation China and Vietnam, who actively promote bilateral economic cooperation, are "good neighbors, good friends, good comrades and good partners". In 2011, both sides issued Five Year Plan of Trade and Economic Cooperation between China and Vietnam in 2012 - 2016 and a range of agreements, announced China-Vietnam Joint Statement which emphasized creating favorable conditions for expanding win-win cooperation, constructing cross-border cooperation zones and "Two Corridors and one Ring" cooperation. In recent years, two countries are mainly carried out a series of cooperation in the following areas. 3.1 Energy cooperation In the field of energy cooperation, both sides conduct power interconnection and power trade, and through the ways of jointly building hydro power stations, contracting power engineering projects and constructing multinational transmission network to further strengthen the hydropower resources development and cooperation. A 110v line was formally transmitted from Yunnan Hekou to Vietnam Lao Cai since September 2004, China Southern Power Grid has transmitted 3 lines of 220v and 4 lines of 110v to 8 provinces in northern Vietnam. It transmitted 5.53 billion kw to 8 provinces in northern Vietnam in 2010, up 24.9%. By the end of August 2011, it had accumulated 20.9 billion kw to Vietnam.[11]On October 20, 2011, China National Technical Import and Export Corporation and Tianjin Electric Power Construction Company forming a consortium signed a contract of Vietnam Hai Duong thermal power station (EPC) with JAKS in Nanning, the subject of the contract was $1.488 billion. In 172
6. November 2011, Zhejiang Fuchunjiang Hydropower Equipment Co., Ltd. and China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research formed a consortium who participated the bid for No.III.3.2 completed plants of mechanical and electrical equipment of Vietnam Xekaman1 hydropower plant project, the winning bid was $38.514 million and plus 9.9 billion dong. [12] (p.185.) 3.2 Industrial Cooperation In industrial cooperation, Sino-Vietnam programs mainly include alumina, cassava starch and steel rolling production line, etc. Vietnam Lam Dong alumina construction project is a collaboration of Vietnam National Coal Industry Group and CHALIECO, with a total investment of $466 million, which produce an annual output of 60,0000 tons of alumina. Investment project of Nitrogen fertilizer plant of Ninh Binh province, signed by China and Vietnam, went into operation in May 2008, with investment of $40 million. [13]In Jan.2011, LILAMA company of Vietnam and China Steelmaking Technology Group signed Contract of Capacity Expansion Project in the Second Phase of Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company, with investment amount of 100 billion dong. China Steelmaking Technology Group was responsible for providing steel rolling, exploitation of iron mine and beneficiation production line. [14]In July 2011, the first phase of cassava industrial project of Guangxi Bureau of Agricultural Reclamation and Vietnam Qui Nhon broke ground, with investment of $68 million and annual output of 100,000 tons of cassava modified starch. 3.3 Transportation Construction China and Vietnam continued to promote highway and railway construction in Sub- regional economic cooperation zone of "Two Corridors and One Ring". By the end of 2002, the highway in category-1 ports, from Guangxi to Vietnam, are converted into category-2 ports, major projects including Highways of Nanning - Huunghi, Baise - Luo Cunkou , Nanning - Baise, Longlin - Baise, Fangcheng - Dongxing , kunming - Hekou, Lao Cai - Hanoi, Hanoi - Haiphong, etc. Highway network in China-Vietnam border has basically taken shape until 2011. The section of West corridor (kunming - Hanoi - Haiphong) within China is 407 km long and has been upgraded to highway. The 265 km- long Lao Cai - Hanoi Highway within Vietnam, a docking with Kunming - Hekou Highway, has been completed 80% in the section of Lao Cai. It’s expected to be fully completed by the end of 2013. Within China, railway construction projects of Kunming - Hekou, Nanning- Fangcheng and Tiandong - Jingxi have already begun and achieve postive progress. Besides, the light rail project of Jiling - Hedong line within Hanoi Vietnam, undertaken by China Railway Liuju Group, has begun on Oct.10, 2011. It has 13.04 km long and the total project is $553 million. [12] (pp.180 & 184-185.) 4. Output of Labor Service China and Vietnam are linked by mountains and rivers, which provides convenience for personnel exchange. As political and economic relations between China 173
7. and Vietnam strengthen, the output of labor service between two countries has been prevailing in recent years. 4.1China's Labor Output to Vietnam The Mingzhi Web of Vietnam reported, Vietnamese senior officials of the Ministry of Public Security said in June 2009 that 35,000 Chinese workers were worked in Vietnam, most of them were unskilled workers followed with their contractors. [15]Those who worked in Quang Ninh and Haiphong power plants were larger than native workers. Then following their contractors, the Chinese ordinary workers began to work in Nongshan thermal power plants in Quang Nam, central province of Vietnam. Although the government of Vietnam prescribed in 2008 that foreigners should get Work Permits for Expatriate Labor, present foreign workers without license are estimated to tens of thousands and the majority are Chinese. As an increasing numbers of Chinese enterprises investing in Vietnam and scattering in more areas, Chinese workers will increases. 4.2 Vietnam’s Labor Output to China At present, Vietnam’ labor output is based on major markets, such as Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. According to the Vietnam Ditnews reported on March 21, 2012, there were no statistics of Vietnam’s labor output to mainland China by 2011, but shown 1826 Vietnamese to Macao and 34998 to Taiwan. Most immigrant labors were workers, crew, nannies, security and other average manual workers. [16]However, illegal migrant workers not only enter into traditional border regions, but formed the influx of migrants in a large scale. Some illegal intermediaries conduct the output of labor service to China through lower charges. The output of Vietnam labor, especially into some remote hinterlands, was assisted by specially assigned people which formed “one package service” of hunting for labors, assisting entry, contacting the factory and guiding the way of pickup. In recent years, a rising number of illegal Vietnam labors enter into China and the largest are in Guangdong province. [17] 5. Problem and Countermeasure Although bilateral trade and economic cooperation develop rapidly and make a remarkable achievement, there’re still many existing problems that need both countries to cope with actively for promoting a better cooperation. 5.1 Trade Imbalance According to the statistics of Vietnam customs, Vietnam has been in deficit in Sino-Vietnam trade over the years and deficit with China has edged a bit higher. The causes can be divided into the following aspects. Firstly, Vietnam is in the early stage of industrialization, thus it demands a great import. Secondly, under the framework of CAFTA, the costs are much lower if imports from China. Both countries are close neighbors geographically and enjoy a convenient transportation, China becomes the best source of imports. Thirdly, the added value of Vietnam's exports to China is relatively low. Fourthly, the competitiveness and export capacity of Vietnam’ commodity are limited which is difficult to enter into China's huge market. The government of Vietnam has 174
8. passed the strategy of import and export from 2011 to 2020 that determined the target development of exports for four categories of commodity, fuels and minerals, aquatic products, industrial processing and manufacturing, new products. Meanwhile, [18] Chinese government should encourage the export enterprises to invest in Vietnam so as to realize the transfer of surplus industry, circumvent the trade barriers imposed by Europe and America. Besides, China should maintain sustained and balanced trade development between two countries and narrow the trade deficit. 5.2 Commodity Structure and Competitiveness Problem At present, the commodity structure of Sino-Vietnam trade is relatively simple. A similarity in industrial structure of traded goods leads to some competitive problems. Therefore, Chinese exports should transfer from the traditional structure of primary products based to medium and high-grade commodity structure of high-tech and high value-added. Meanwhile, it is necessary for Vietnam to improve their quality in order to enter into Chinese market in large quantities. What’s more, China and Vietnam should strengthen technological cooperation in the fields of agriculture, aquatic product processing, medical and health care, electricity and communications equipment, audio- visual equipment, jointly research and develop new products, enhance the competitiveness of products as well as realize the implementation of invigorating trade, making it a new growth point of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. 5.3 Unconspicuous Mutual Investment Currently, mutual investment between China and Vietnam develop slowly and the investment amounts are not very large. Compared with other investors in Vietnam, China invested less projects and in a relatively small scale which are not symmetric with China’s current investment strength. The competitive industrial projects, including machinery, water and electricity equipment, industrial equipment, household appliances, toys, writing paper, etc., haven’t appeared in Vietnam. Therefore, China should expand investment in these fields. Likewise, Vietnam should take measures to improve its investment environment, such as reducing the land rents and extending marginal relief, which can ultimately promote the investment cooperation between two countries. REFERENCES [1]Market Report of China in 2012, Administrative Office of International Relations, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce for Industry and Commerce[R].2013-2-19 [2]Some Problems of Vietnam Imports and Exports in 2012[DB/OL], Vietnam customs, Customs Web. ory=Ph%C3%A2n%20t%C3%ADch%20%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh%20k%E1%BB% B3&Group=Ph%C3%A2n%20t%C3%ADch, 2013-11-6. [3]Retrospect and Prospect of Relation between China and Vietnam in 2012- 2013[J].Around Southeast Asia, 2013, (1) 175
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