Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm sự ảnh hưởng của các rào cản kỹ thuật trong thương mại và các hiệp định thương mại tự do đến giá trị xuất khẩu và hiệu suất xuất khẩu hàng may mặc của Việt Nam

Nội dung text: Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm sự ảnh hưởng của các rào cản kỹ thuật trong thương mại và các hiệp định thương mại tự do đến giá trị xuất khẩu và hiệu suất xuất khẩu hàng may mặc của Việt Nam

1. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE TECHNICAL TRADE BARRIERS AND FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS ON VIETNAM’S APPAREL EXPORT VALUE AND EXPORT EFFICIENCY NGHIấN CỨU THỰC NGHIỆM SỰ ẢNH HƯỞNG CỦA CÁC RÀO CẢN KỸ THUẬT TRONG THƯƠNG MẠI VÀ CÁC HIỆP ĐỊNH THƯƠNG MẠI TỰ DO ĐẾN GIÁ TRỊ XUẤT KHẨU VÀ HIỆU SUẤT XUẤT KHẨU HÀNG MAY MẶC CỦA VIỆT NAM Ngày nhận bài: 30/06/2021 Ngày chấp nhận đăng: 05/09/2021 Dang Thi My Hanh, Le Thi Bao Trinh, Ho Thanh Bao, Huynh Hieu Ngan, Phung Nam Phuong, Bui Huynh Nguyen ABSTRACT The study, firstly, aims to indicate factors affecting the export value and export efficiency of Vietnam’s apparels with Pool Regression, Fix Effect Model and Random Effect Model. In order to capture the effects of factors on export value, Gravity model of Tinbergen (1962) is applied. The results reveal that the gross domestic product of importing countries, Vietnam’s population and real exchange rate have a positive impact on Vietnam’s apparel export whereas importers’ population and geographical distance have the opposite effect. The export efficiency (TRE), which is estimated based on Battese and Coelli (1992) method, is indicated to be much lower than the potential. The study continues to examine the effect of technical barriers to trade (TBT) and the engagement into Free Trade Areas (FTA) around the world of Vietnam to the TRE coefficient, the result shows that both factors can impede and promote the coefficient. Keywords: Export value, Export efficiency, Technical Barriers to Trade, Vietnam’s apparel products. TểM TẮT Nghiờn cứu chỉ ra cỏc yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến giỏ trị và hiệu suất xuất khẩu hàng may mặc của Việt Nam kết hợp với phương phỏp Pool Regression, Fix Effect Model và Random Effect Model. Thụng qua mụ hỡnh Trọng lực của Tinbergen (1962), tổng sản phẩm quốc dõn của nước nhập khẩu, dõn số Việt Nam và tỷ giỏ hối đoỏi thực thỳc đẩy giỏ trị xuất khẩu hàng may mặc trong khi dõn số nước nhập khẩu và khoảng cỏch địa lý cú tỏc động ngược lại. Hiệu suất xuất khẩu (TRE), được ước tớnh dựa trờn phương phỏp Battese và Coelli (1992), thấp hơn nhiều so với tiềm năng. Nghiờn cứu tiếp tục xem xột sự ảnh hưởng của cỏc rào cản kỹ thuật trong thương mại (TBT) và việc tham gia cỏc Khu vực Thương mại Tự do (FTA) của Việt Nam đến hệ số TRE, kết quả cho thấy cả hai yếu tố này đều cú thể cản trở và thỳc đẩy hệ số trờn. Từ khúa: Giỏ trị xuất khẩu, Hàng may mặc Việt Nam, Hiệu suất xuất khẩu, Rào cản Kỹ thuật trong Thương mại. 1. Introduction great efficiency in developing countries Apparel, one of the most important which are in the early stages of sectors of the textile industry, is a simple industrialization, including Vietnam labor-intensive stage, and usually takes advantage in countries with abundant labor resources and cheap labor costs (Khai et al., Dang Thi My Hanh, Le Thi Bao Trinh, Ho Thanh 2013). Therefore, textile and apparel Bao, Huynh Hieu Ngan, Phung Nam Phuong, Bui production often develops strongly and has Huynh Nguyen, University of Economics – The University of Da Nang 23
2. TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG (Deegahawathura, 2018). In contrast, for process of evaluating that imported product industrialized countries with high technology based on the standards. Compliance with levels, high labor costs, which means low these measures sometimes requires level of competitiveness in textile significant changes not only to the finished production. As a result, these countries tend product, but also to the process, growth, to reach for industries with higher technical source of raw materials, packaging, content, less labor and greater profitability. transportations and so on. This poses In other words, the textile and garment difficulties for exporting countries, including industry, especially the apparel industry, can Vietnam, because if the technical promote its role in developing countries and requirements are not met, the non- have suitable conditions, including Vietnam, conforming goods might be refused to be based on its comparative advantages in imported. (Vietnam Chamber of Commerce human resources and labor costs. and Industry). TBT is likely to be viewed as According to Mr. Vu Duc Giang, both a "fence" for exports and a "scale" for a chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel country's export capability. This “scale” will Association, the industry's export target will be a system of criteria that allows exporting reach $55 billion by 2025. Trade surplus countries to assess to what extent their export strives to reach 33 billion USD, average responsiveness is (Ghodsi, 2019). In this growth of 11.6% and ensure 3 million research, TBT is quantified by using TBT employees. To achieve this vision, Mr. Giang Coverage ratio (share the value of highlighted that Vietnam should make better commodity affected by at least one TBT use of opportunities from Free Trade measure) and TBT Frequency ratio (the Agreements (FTA). In fact, increasing percentage of goods subjected to one or more participation in FTAs has brought NTMs) (WITS). opportunities to enjoy preferential tax rates Classical and new trade theories, though, and reduce barriers when exporting to FTA may explain the motivations in which nations partner markets (WTO Center and engage in world trade; however, the scale of Integration; Vietnam Chamber of Commerce trade flows cannot be analyzed (Do, 2006). and Industry, 2019). However, while tariff On the other hand, the Gravity model can be regulations are being phased out, Vietnam's widely used to analyze characteristics and exports are still being increasingly affected performance as well as estimate the size of by non-tariff barriers (NTMs) such as rules trade in international trade (Do, 2006). The of origin, technical barriers, anti-subsidy, Gravity model explaining bilateral trade is anti-dumping, self-defense, etc. (Nguyen based on explanatory variables: the size of Bich Thuy, 2020). the two partner economies and the distance Vietnam's exports are affected by 44,408 between them, first studied in 1962 (Nello & NTMs, accounting for 72% of the world's Susan, 2009). In addition, this model is used total number. Out of the total number of to assess the impact of free trade agreements NTMs in Vietnam, 54% are TBT measures (FTAs) on trade flows, explaining bilateral (Huong et al., 2021). In particular, TBT, import demand with a range of different which is defined by the World Trade variables such as income of the importing Organization (WTO) as the technical country and exporting country, the per capita standards and regulations that a country income of the two countries, the applies to an imported product, and the geographical distance between the two 24
3. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 countries and other variables (Nguyen Van potential export volume that Vietnam is able Tuan & Tran Thi Huong Tra, 2017). By to achieve (Doan & Xing, 2017). Besides, examining the relationship of countries with these investigations, carried out by Doan & “economies of scale” and the underlying Xing (2017), Hai et al., (2017), Drysdale et assumption that countries compete al. (2012) etc., have only clarified the exclusively in different goods (Anderson, relationship between the coefficient, free 1979), the Gravity model is found to be very trade areas engagements, tariffs and non- suitable for pointing out the factors affecting tariffs barriers, i.e. rules of origin. Therefore, Vietnam's apparel exports in the period of they failed to identify the trade efficiency of 2010-2019. apparel exports and capture the effect of TBT In terms of trade value, the academic on TRE. community has extensively applied the In terms of TBT’s influences on export Gravity model to measure the impact of trade value, TBT was attributed negatively to the flows between countries as well as evaluate trade value of Vietnam’s tea exports to the their export potential, for instance, the world market (Nguyen et al., 2021) due to research of Armstrong et al. (2008), Kang the increasing in production costs, including (2014), Doan & Xing (2017), Nguyen fixed cost and variable cost. The increased (2013), Kraja & Sejdini (2014), etc. Besides, costs make Vietnam's tea export less much is known about studies of specific profitable, resulting in decreases in export products such as rice, wood, coffee of Natale volumes. However, Bhyuana et al. (2020) et al. (2015), Dlamini et al. (2016), Abafita et indicated the positive relationship between al. (2021), etc. However, the majority of the value of TBT coverage, TBT frequency these products are agricultural products, ratios and Textiles & Garments product which are associated with natural factors of exports from Bangladesh to the USA market. production whereas the apparel industry is a The results pointed out that although labour-intensive field. In other words, compliance with technical standards could applying the prior models to apparel products raise costs, Bangladesh had succeeded in is infeasible. Besides, little research based on exploiting economies of scale, taking a large the Gravity model has been conducted to amount of customers’ information and exploit the development of the apparel achieving competitiveness advantages in the industry in Vietnam, which means there importing markets. In other words, thanks to should be an appropriate examination in TBT, the benefits will outweigh the costs in terms of the apparel industry. the long run. The similar conclusion has also Regarding trade efficiency, the majority been clarified by Wood et al. (2017). There of prior studies focused on estimating trade are some arguments show that an increase in efficiency regarding total export or export to TBT could hinder the probability of getting a specific market, for example in the research access to importing markets, which then of Doan & Xing (2017), namely “Trade restrict the trade value. However, the authors efficiency, Free Trade Agreements and Rules suggested that the impact of TBT, in fact, of Origin” or Hai et al. (2017) in estimating varied between kinds of products and that is trade efficiency between Vietnam and the reason why the research re-examines ASEAN markets. In this regard, trade TBT measures in terms of apparel products. efficiency is understood as the ratio of the On the other hand, the study aims to clarify actual export volume to the maximum the relationship between TRE and TBT 25
4. TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG measures without considering the link continues to be developed and applied in a between TRE and apparel export value. This lot of studies of Anderson (1979), Bergstrand is because TBT regulations in this research (1990), Wincoop (2003) and Helpman et al. are illustrated in the perspective of a (2006). While theoretical models can only country’s government policy. Besides, based consider supply-side or demand-side factors on Battese & Coelli (1992) method, there is a (such as GDP/GNP, population, positive correlation between TRE and export infrastructure, import tariffs, FDI, labor value. To put it another way, this costs, coastal location, etc.) and can only be modification has the potential to assure effective for export research in the medium consistency in results. Additionally, and long term or in the short term, Gravity capturing the effects of TBT on TRE ensures models can solve this problem by studying that the nature of the Gravity model is both sides of trade. In this model, it can be preserved. concluded that exports are positively affected In summary, by using the Gravity model by the economies scale of countries and of Tinbergen (1962) and stochastic gravity distance is expected to negatively affect trade model associated with Battese and Coelli flows. The gravity model studying trade (1992) method, the research determines (1) between two countries takes the following factors affecting Vietnam apparel export form: value (2) the export efficiency over the = period and (3) and the relationship between engagement in free trade agreements and Where Xij is the export value of country i non-tariff barriers, in particular TBT and to country j, GDPi is gross domestic product TRE. Finally, based on the results and the of country i and country j, POPij is the current situation of apparel exports (HS 61) population of country i and country j, DIST of Vietnam from 2010 to 2019, several is the distance between country i and country recommendations will be proposed to j, α is coefficient of attraction or hindrance. promote Vietnam’s apparel exports in the In terms of factors affecting Viet Nam’s future. apparel exports, proposed model can be written as follows: 2. Theoretical framework and methodology 2.1. Theoretical framework 2.1.1. The Gravity model The Gravity model was initiated by Tinbergen (1962) and Poyhonen (1963) and widely applied in empirical studies to Where Xij,t is Vietnam’s apparel export quantify the trade effects of economic bloc value to country j in year t; GDPj,t and GDPi,t linkages. Due to the efficiency and ease in are GDP of country j and Vietnam in year t; determining the factors that affect exports as POPj,t and POPi,t are the population of well as the level of their impact on exports, country j and Vietnam in year t; DISTij is the including the consideration of the supply geographic distance between Hanoi side, the demand side and factors that hinder (Vietnam’s capital) and the capital of country or attract exports, the gravity model then j; FTAij,t - dummy variable, is free trade 26
5. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 agreement between Vietnam and country j, and the difference between X* and Xịj is which takes into effect in year t. technical inefficiencies (Battese & Coelli, 1992). Efficiency measures from the SFG 2.1.2. The Stochastic Frontier Gravity model method range from 0 to 1: a value of 1 and export efficiency indicates 100% efficiency and a value of 0 The Stochastic Frontier Gravity (SFG) indicates 0% efficiency. model is used for the purpose of measuring production efficiency and capturing trade resistances in addition to the obvious resistances usually measured in economic Where is the actual export gravity models. The model was developed by values in year t and is Aigner et al. (1977) and Meeusen & Broeck (1977). The SFG applied in the Gravity the possible maximum export values in Model is considered an appropriate way to Vietnam. When capturing the effects of handle and estimate unobservable resistance factors on export efficiency, two types of levels which are also called as non-tariff policies are demonstrated including those barriers to trade (Armstrong, 2007). imposed by the government of a country and Kalirajan & Findlay (2005) proposed a those agreed by governments among method of estimating export efficiency with countries. As for the policy imposed by the the gravity model promoted by studies and government in a country, freedom of trade workshops on measuring production (FT) is taken into consider. In regard to the possibility limits. Export efficiency is policies negotiated between governments of defined as the highest achievable export nations, Free trade areas (FTAs) such as value without artificial barriers (Armstrong, ASEAN, NAFTA, and EU will be examined. 2007). According to this study, the form of Free trade area is a group of countries that the random boundary gravity equation is apply little or no trade barriers regarding given as follows: tariffs or non-tariffs toward country members in the region (Rasure, 2020). On the other hand, another non-tariff barrier - technical Where Xit is the export value of Vietnam barrier to trade (TBT) will be captured in the to partner country i in year t and f(Yit; β) is model. TBTs are defined as standard barriers Vietnam's maximum potential trade with or import regulations that reflect a country's only natural barriers; vit is statistical error concerns and judgments toward its safety, due to random factors and assumed to be health, product quality, and environment normally distributed and independent of uit; (Hillman, 1991; Roberts & DeRemer, 1997). uit is the technical inefficiency part, or Adaptation of quality, labeling and technical technical inefficiency, which is assumed to standards, however, raises costs and reduces be greater than or equal to zero (non- competitive advantages (Fontagne & Orefice, negative) and has a semi-normal distribution. 2018). Besides, TBT can promote the trade If Vietnam's apparel exports lie on the of existing exporters while impeding frontier, thus, the maximum export level is potential competitors from entering the reached based on available factors. If apparel market or by driving marginal exporters out exports are below the marginal export line, of the market (Bao & Chen, 2013). The which means the actual export value (Xit) is model of factors affecting export efficiency less than the maximum export value (X*) can be written as follows: 27
6. TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG Heritage Foundation and International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2.2.2. Data processing method Where TRE is export efficiency of Gravity-model-based evaluation of Vietnam’s apparel exports, TBT coverage previous studies relied on the application of ratio is defined as the total value of imports OLS regression in panel data tables. which are subjected to TBT. TBT Frequency However, several studies have proven that ratio represents the presence or absence of a the OLS regression model gave biased results measure, expressing the percentage of goods because it ignored heterogeneous factors subjected to one or more NTMs. Regions such as language, culture, and history. (ASEAN, EU, NAFTA) are dummy Matyas (1997) proposed a gravity model variables equal to 1 if country j is the approach based on a "3-dimensional model" - region’s member and otherwise have the between the importing country, the exporting value of 0. FT is the Trade freedom index of j,t country and the effects of time (fixed or country j in year t. random). In other words, it is necessary to 2.2. Methodology use panel data so that we can control the effects of random and fixed factors, and 2.2.1. Sampling method and data collection remove endogenous phenomena from Data are collected and presented as panel heterogeneous and unobserved variables data, through which data can be compared (Muhammad et al., 2020). Correspondingly, between two dimensions of space and time. Plumper & Troeger (2007) suggested that Data will be collected in 35 countries who while the fixed effect model could not are the biggest HS61 importers over 10 years capture the effect of time invariants, OLS for the period of 2010-2019 (n=35x10=350). regression, random effect, model was The study uses a purposeful sampling considered to better determine time method, because, based on information from invariants’ influence. That is to say, besides the International Trade Center (ITC), The the OLS regression method, random effects export value into these 35 countries model (REM) will be applied to determine contributed to more than 98.6% of Vietnam's the influence of geographical distance factor total apparel export price of HS 61 code in on Vietnam’s apparel exports in the period the period of 2019. Thus, with the above 2010-2019. And Hausman results will significant weight, using the data of these 35 indicate the selection of appropriate countries for the study is expected to bring explanatory model (Muhammad et al., 2020). positive results as well as contribute to the All stages of the data process are based on export performance of apparel products with the STATA program. HS code 61 of Vietnam. Moreover, based on the model of Battese The data used for the variables in the & Coelli (1992) TRE is defined as the ratio study are synthesized and calculated from between actual and potential exports. The reputable data sources, verified by world higher this coefficient, the closer the export organizations, including: The World Trade volume to the export border (with a value of Center (ITC), World Bank (WB), Center for 1) (Thang & Xing, 2017). After estimating International Prospects and Information the TRE coefficient over the years, the Research (CEPII), Vietnam Chamber of relationship between TRE, TBT and Commerce and Industry (VCCI), The 28
7. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 engagement in free trade areas is tested using Table 3.2 a baseline model - OLS regression. Results of Hausman test 3. Results Chisq 10.45 3.1. Factors affecting Vietnam's apparel P value 0.1070>0.05 exports Table 3.2 shows the results of Hausman Table 3.1 test with p-value = 0.1070> 0.05, accepting Factors affecting Vietnam's apparel exports hypothesis Ho. In other words, the random Variables OLS FEM REM effects model (REM) gives better results than the fixed effects model (FEM). However, lnGDP 1.812 1.772 1.723 time invariants such as geographical distance (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) cannot be estimated through the FEM model lnGDPVN -0.309 -0.321 -0.357 (Oscar, 2013). (0.814) (0.624) (0.583) Table 3.1 shows the effect of variables on Vietnam's apparel exports. Based on the lnPOP - -5.927 -0.855 0.898 results of the OLS regression model, the GDP of the partner country is considered to (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) have a positive correlation with Vietnam's lnPOPVN 15.931 20.584 16.968 apparel export value. Specifically, an (0.145) (0.000) (0.002) increase of 1% of the GDP of the partner country makes the export value of Vietnam's lnDIST - -0.390* 0.403 apparel jump by 1.812% in the period 2010- 2019. Similarly, the fixed effects model (0.000) (0.062) (FEM) and random effects gravity model lnRER 0.110 0.096 0.096 (REM) indicated the positive correlation (0.001) (0.407) (0.162) between GDP of the partner country and Vietnam's apparel exports. Specifically, the FTA 0.050 0.035 0.030 export value of Vietnamese apparels with HS (0.016) (0.013) (0.028) code 61 increased by 1.772% and 1.723% Constant - - - respectively when partner country’s GDP 296.537* 295.730 312.787 increased by 1% with a significance level of (0.076) (0.000) (0.000) 1%. However, at the 1% level of significance, the value of apparel exports Observations 350 350 350 (HS 61) decreases by 0.898%, 5.927% and R-squared 0.749 0.615 0.855% when the population of the partner Adjusted R- 0.744 0.565 country increases by 1% accordingly towards squared OLS, FEM, FEM. Number of 35 35 35 In addition, it can be seen that there is an Importer inverse relationship between geographical distance and Vietnam's apparel export value Note: , , * shows that the null hypotheses are rejected at 1%, 5% and 10% level of (HS61). To be specific, in OLS regression, a significance 1% increase in geographical distance reduces Source: The authors’ calculation export value by 0.403% at 1% significance 29
8. TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG level. Regarding Vietnam population helps foster Vietnam apparel export value variable, it can be concluded that Vietnamese HS61 with coefficient ranging from 0.03 to apparel exports is promoted by Vietnam 0.05 at the significant of 5%. In consequence, population, with the coefficient of 20.584 despite increasing engagement in FTAs it can and 16.968 at a significance level of 1% in be challenging for Vietnam to completely FEM and REM respectively. benefit from these agreements. The real exchange rate factor promotes However, based on data from 35 markets Vietnam’s apparel exports with the to demonstrate the impacts of factors on coefficient of 0.110 at the significant level of Vietnam’s apparel export value, regretfully, 1%. In this regard, an increase in real there is an insignificant relationship between exchange rate means that Vietnam apparel Vietnam’s GDP and apparel export value. exports become much cheaper compared to This indication is similar to Nguyen et al. domestic goods of importing countries, (2019) results in investigating trade which, therefore, facilitates Vietnam apparel efficiency of Vietnam in rice export activity, exports. In terms of FTA, it can be concluded in which Vietnam’s GDP effect could not be that the participation in free trade agreements captured in the model. 3.2. Vietnam’s apparel export efficiency Table 3.3 Export efficiency regarding Asia Pacific countries Country 2010 - 2011 2012 - 2013 2014 - 2015 2016 - 2017 2018 - 2019 China 2.45% 2.96% 3.54% 4.20% 4.95% Other Hong Kong 3.79% 4.48% 5.26% 6.11% 7.06% Asian Russian 4.15% 4.88% 5.70% 6.60% 7.59% Countries Japan 13.52% 14.98% 16.50% 18.10% 19.75% South Korea 16.56% 18.16% 19.81% 21.52% 23.28% Malaysia 2.90% 3.47% 4.13% 4.86% 5.67% ASEAN Philippines 4.52% 5.30% 6.16% 7.10% 8.13% Cambodia 7.86% 8.95% 10.13% 11.39% 12.73% Italy 3.30% 3.93% 4.64% 5.43% 6.31% France 3.42% 4.07% 4.80% 5.60% 6.50% Germany 4.53% 5.31% 6.17% 7.11% 8.15% EU United Kingdom 5.61% 6.51% 7.48% 8.55% 9.69% Spain 8.56% 9.71% 10.94% 12.25% 13.64% Belgium 10.04% 11.29% 12.63% 14.04% 15.52% Netherlands 13.47% 14.92% 16.45% 18.04% 19.69% Mexico 9.45% 10.66% 11.96% 13.33% 14.78% NAFTA Canada 15.06% 16.59% 18.19% 19.85% 21.56% USA 62.67% 64.16% 65.60% 67.01% 68.37% Chile 15.76% 17.32% 18.94% 20.62% 22.36% Source: The authors’ calculation 30
9. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 Table 3.3 reports the estimated trade efficiency of Vietnam is the highest with efficiency of Asia Pacific countries, 68.37%. Similarly, actual exports to Chile including three countries in ASEAN and accounted for 22.36% of the some countries such as China, Hong Kong, maximum, which is greater than any other Russian Federation, Japan, Chile and countries regarding Vietnam's export Republic of Korea. In general, empirical efficiency. results show that Vietnam's export efficiency 3.3. Factors affecting export efficiency in with trading partners increased slightly, the period 2010-2019 ranging from 3% to 5% between 2010 and Table 3.4 2019. For some countries in APAC, including China, Hong Kong, Russian Factors affecting export efficiency in the period 2010-2019 Federation, Japan, Chile and the Republic of Korea, Vietnam's export efficiency to the Variable OLS Republic of Korea reached the highest, about NAFTA 0.289 23.28%, accounting for just over ⅕ than the (0.000) maximum potential. It is followed by Chile, with an export performance of 22.36% of the EU -0.051 maximum volume in 2019. Russian (0.000) Federation exports account for almost 8% of ASEAN 0.017 the export efficiency. For export efficiency in (0.209) the China market, in the period 2018-2019, TBT Coverage ratio -0.106 this value has not reached 8% of the maximum value. It is difficult for Vietnam to (0.003) increase the value of exports to the Chinese TBT Frequency ratio 0.220 market to achieve its maximum capacity (0.000) (Nguyen & Yuqing, 2017). FT 0.003 Among the seven EU member countries, (0.000) the export efficiency of Vietnam with Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Constant -0.234 Belgium and the Netherlands has grown (0.000) steadily, ranging from 2% to 5% over the Observations 320 period 2010-2019. The United Kingdom is the largest import market for apparel with HS R-squared 0.554 61 code, the export efficiency of this group Adjusted R-squared 0.545 of goods to the United Kingdom is at a very Number of Importer 32 low level, 5.61% and 9.69% respectively in 2010 and 2019, about 1⁄10 compared to what Note: , , * shows that the null hypotheses are rejected at 1%, 5% and 10% level of Vietnam could achieve. The efficiency of significant Vietnam's exports to NAFTA countries Source: The authors’ calculation increased more than ASEAN member Table 3.4 indicates the positive impact of countries, increasing by an average of 6% - not joining NAFTA on Vietnam’s apparel 8% after 10 years. Although up to this point, export efficiency. Despite not being a the USA and Vietnam still have no free trade NAFTA member, Vietnam’s apparel can take agreement, the HS61 apparel export 31
10. TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG advantage from these countries, with the specific, it can be indicated that compliance coefficient of 0.289 at a significant level of with non-tariff barriers, especially technical 1%. In fact, the USA is one of the biggest standards, has limited the export value of importing markets of Vietnam’s apparel, Vietnam’s apparels. Meanwhile, excluding with high demand and purchasing power and NAFTA, not participation in free trade areas Vietnam’s apparel up to now has a can bring a negative contribution to this significant belief on American customers. At coefficient a significant level of 1%, non-accession to 4. Conclusion the EU is considered to be a hindrance to The research has explored a model Vietnam's apparel export efficiency. In other consisting of several factors affecting words, not being an EU member can Vietnam apparel export value. To be specific, negatively affect this coefficient. There is a the gross national product of the partner negative correlation between the TBT country and the population of Vietnam have coverage rate and the export efficiency. a significant positive influence on the value Specifically, a 1% increase in TBT coverage of Vietnam's apparel exports, while the can reduce the TRE by 0.106% at the 1% partner country's population and level of statistical significance. Meanwhile, geographical distance limit the growth of this the TBT Frequency ratio has a positive effect value. In addition, the paper can cover on the TRE with the coefficient at 0.220. insignificantly positive impacts of real This result can be explained by the argument exchange rate and free trade agreements on of Bhyuana et al. (2020) when supposed the export value. compliance with technical standards facilitates exploiting economies of scale and Regarding export efficiency estimation, taking a large amount of customers’ Vietnam's apparel export efficiency in the information and achieving competitiveness period of 2010-2019 is much lower advantages in the importing markets. compared to the actual potential, with the Besides, economic freedom is a contributor US-VN efficiency ranked first. The results to the increase of the TRE. At 1% reveal that non-participation in free trade significance level, the TRE coefficient areas hinders the improvement of the apparel increases by 0.003% when the free trade export efficiency coefficient (excluding index increases by 1%. However, in actual NAFTA). Moreover, partner countries fact, there were not significant changes in applying a high level of non-tariff barriers, this index among countries, which to some especially technical barriers to trade can both extent can explain why its impact on TRE is promote and impede the apparel export not remarkable. efficiency of Vietnam. In summary, during the period 2010- The research results in the study can be 2019, Vietnam's apparel export value was useful for supporting the Vietnamese still very low compared to the potential level government as well as businesses in setting with the US being considered as the partner export goals and policies to improve the country with the highest export efficiency. quality and the competitiveness of Besides, regarding the correlation between Vietnamese apparels. However, just TBT, FTA and TRE, if the TBT coverage referencing research is not enough to factor limits the TRE, the frequency comprehensively develop the export of coefficient gives the opposite effect. To be Vietnam's apparel industry. Firstly, the 32
11. TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(03) - 2021 purposeful sampling narrowed the scope of to evaluate data when, in fact, variables such the research, leading to a relative and as TBT always fluctuate in value over the generalized result. In other words, years. Moreover, the results of testing this Vietnamese Government and exporting model only show the impact of TBT on companies need to conduct research on many export performance without mentioning other other specific aspects related to exports trade barrier variables. Finally, the research including the development of infrastructure, focuses on exporting apparels with HS code Vietnam's transportation, influence of 61 to propose export for the whole industry. domestic demand or competition from other Expanding the study to include HS 62 and 63 exporters, etc. Secondly, the TRE model in will provide a more objective and accurate the paper uses independent variables that do assessment of Vietnam's apparel export not change over time. This makes it difficult performance in general. REFERENCES Abafita, J. and Tadesse, T. (2021) ‘Determinants of global coffee trade: Do RTAs matter? Gravity model analysis’, Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1892925. Ahmad, A. U. et al. (2020) ‘A Heterogeneous Relationships between Urbanization, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth on Environmental Degradation: Panel Study of Malaysia and Selected ASEAN+ 3 Countries’, Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques, 8(1), 573–581. Aigner, D., Lovell, C. K. and Schmidt, P. (1977) ‘Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models’, Journal of econometrics, 6(1), 21–37. Anderson, J. E. (1979) ‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’, The American economic review, 69(1), 106–116. Anderson, J. E. and Van Wincoop, E. (2003) ‘Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle’, American economic review, 93(1), 170–192. Armstrong, S. P., Drysdale, P. and Kalirajan, K. (2008) ‘Asian trade structures and trade potential: an initial analysis of South and East Asian trade’, Available at SSRN 1767686. Bao, X. and Chen, W.-C. (2013) ‘The impacts of technical barriers to trade on different components of international trade’, Review of Development Economics, 17(3), 447–460. Battese, G. E ., and Coelli, T. (1992) ‘Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data: with Application to Paddy Farmers in India’, Journal of Productivity Analysis, 3(1/2) , 153–169. Bergstrand, J. H. (1990) ‘The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model, the Linder hypothesis and the determinants of bilateral intra-industry trade’, The Economic Journal, 100(403), 1216– 1229. Bhyuana, M.-I. and Ohb, K.-Y. (2020) ‘The Effects of Technical Barriers to Trade on Export of Textiles and Garments from Bangladesh to the USA’, The Journal of International Trade and Commerce, 16, 1–12. Deegahawathura, H. (2018) ‘The Garment Industry’s Technology Challenge’, CPD RMG Study. 33
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