Relationship between sectoral exports and economic growth - A vector error correction modeling for vietnamese fishery sector 1997 – 2008

Nội dung text: Relationship between sectoral exports and economic growth - A vector error correction modeling for vietnamese fishery sector 1997 – 2008

1. Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 55 Relationship Between Sectoral Exports And Economic Growth - A Vector Error Correction Modeling For Vietnamese Fishery Sector 1997 – 2008 By Nguyen Minh Duc1 and Nguyen Anh Tram2 Numerous literatures have documented growth of a country. The classical economic the relationship between exports and theories by Adam Smith, David Ricardo, economic growth of a nation but not so Torrens, James Mill and John Stuart Mill many on the one between exports of an stated that trade promoted economic growth. economic sector and national growth. This Evidence for a positive contribution of free paper examines the latter relationship with trade to the productivity of nations has been evidence from fishery exports of Vietnam widely discussed and is well documented during 1997 to 2008. The contribution of in the economic literature (Corden 1972, fishery sector in Vietnamese Gross Domestic Bhagwati, 1978; Krueger, 1978, Romer, Products (GDP) may be mathematically 1986; Lucas, 1988; Levine and Renelt, 1992; calculated with statistical figures. However, Edwards, 1998). the effects of fishery exports on the economic In international trade, there were also growth are yet to be thoroughly studied in some industries enjoying an international an econometric approach. An econometric comparative advantage, recently. These approach with stationary and co-integration sectors could produce world class tests and vector error correction models used commodities for modest export sectors. in this study allows forecasting a persistence The sectors communicated and traded of the effects of fishery exports on Vietnamese with buyers in other countries. Markets are GDP despite of different seasonal business. speedily globalized. The modern theory of For the long run estimation, a double trade has been designed and proponed by increase in national fishery exports revenue Paul Krugman, who suggested that trade would raise the GDP by 7%. This has a great trends in countries are developing key economic meaning in developing process of industries for export in order to get economic Vietnamese economy. In reverse direction, gain or growth. The key industries produced Vietnamese fishery exports would increase sectoral exports of the countries. by 5.2% with a 10% increase in its GDP. Sectoral exporting is an economic Confirming the role of fishery exports in development strategy of many countries. national economic growth, it is necessary Tourism service exports in Greece are for the sector to improve its competitive an example (Thompson and Thompson, capacity. 2010). With its thousands-year culture and Keywords: sectoral export, growth, birthplace of philosophy, famous tourist trade, fishery, vector error correction hotspots as its capital Athens, the northern model Chalkidiki peninsula, the Ionian island of Corfu and the island resorts of Myconos, I. Introduction Santorini, Paros and Crete, Greece is one of The relationship between economic the best destinations for global tourists and growth and international trade was argued tourism was found to be a long run factor by many economists when trade comes into to economic of the country (Dritsakis, being. Trade indeed promotes economic 2004). The Philippines is the paradigmatic 1 Correspondent author; Chair, Department of Fisheries Management and Development, Nong Lam University, Thuduc, Hochiminh City, Vietnam. Email: nmduc@hcmuaf.edu.vn, nguyenminhducts@gmail.com 2 M.Sc. Graduate, Vietnam-Netherland Master Program in Development Economics, HCMC University of Economics, Hochiminh City, Vietnam.
2. 56 Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 example of a state that deliberately on effects such as migrant workers sending constructed policy for its exports of labor remittances to their dependents (Kurien, abroad. Yang (2004) has demonstrated that 2005). Contributing approximate 10% of Philippine families with migrant members whole national export revenues, fishery abroad fared considerably better than exports make an ongoing contribution to family member without migrants. The economic growth, poverty alleviation and Philippines have succeeded in developing people well-being as well (Duc, 2008, a large scale labor export regime that 2009a). Although the Vietnamese fishery provides significant level of remittances sector contributes to national GDP typically to the Philippine economy. Remittances varied by 2.5–4.0 percent, it also generates from abroad labor are seen as a particularly a wide range of tax revenues, contributing stable source of its finance (Ratha, 2003; to the national budget. Moreover, the major Kapur, 2004) so that the Philippines try to share of fishery exports has strong backward keep labor exports as more as possible. For linkages with the other sectors both in terms its important role in an economic growth of of primary and value added commodities. developing countries, sectoral exports are However there are lack of empirical studies also considered one of important economic on a clear relationship between Vietnamese development strategy in Vietnam. fishery exports and its economic growth Since joining into ASEAN in 1985, although Vietnamese government has tried Vietnam has boosted and diversified its in practice to promote fishery export growth trade significantly, reflecting a globalization to boost up its economy. process of the Vietnamese economy. Its This study examines causality trade openness (aka exports revenue plus relationship between the fishery export imports expenditure and then divided by and economic growth based on a time GDP) increased from 84.5 percent in 1999 series analysis with quarterly data from to about 170 percent in 2009, indicating a 1997 to 2008 and hence explores the role rapidly increasing integration of the country of fishery exports in Vietnamese economy. into global economy. Although crude oil The national policy makers may use results still stands on the first position in export in this study when making policies and revenues, products from agricultural and strategies for economic development. aquatic products are playing increasingly The findings are also able to contribute to critical role in the structure of Vietnam’s literature on relationship between sectoral exports (Duc and Hong, 2009). exports and economic growth. Fishery exports, according to II. Methodology Cunningham (2000), Schmidt (2003), Model specifications and FAO (2007), can act as an engine of To investigate the association between growth for developing countries endowed the growth of exports and economic with large fish resources. In addition, performance, some theoretical models were fishery exports revenue can contribute to considered. The first is the neo-classical economic growth in developing countries growth model by providing an important source of cash Y = f ( K, L ) (1) revenue (Valdimarsson, 2003, Ahmed, 2003, and Bostock et al., 2004). Fishery where Y is aggregate real output, K and exports not only contribute indirectly L represent capital and labor, respectively. to economic development through new The second theoretical base is from employment creation but also via increased the framework suggested by Feder (1982) incomes from the sector and secondary flow in which the economy consists of export
3. Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 57 and non-export production. However, (Cunningham, 2000, Schmidt, 2003, FAO, output in the export production generates 2007), this study follows a conceptual model an externality effect in the non-export based on an augmented Cobb–Douglas sector, such as efficient management production function as followings and competitive environment, improved Yt = f (Lt, Xt, EXRt) (5) production techniques, better quality where Y, L, EXR are real gross domestic management and workers, and continuous product, labor force, and real exchange rate, flow of imported inputs. Feder’s model of respectively. Variable X represents fishery economic growth can be shown as: exports revenue in an effort to explore its N = f ( KN, LN, X ), (2) effect on national economic growth. X = g ( KX, LX ), (3) Because tra/basa catfish and shrimp where N - domestic non-export production are the most important products for X - domestic export production Vietnamese fishery export and demand for their exports is seasonal (Kinnucan and K , K = capital stocks, respective for N X Miao, 1999), dummy variables for quarters non-export and export production in a year are added in the model (5) with LN, LX = labor forces, respective for the first quarter is used as base variable. non-export and export production The dummy variable for yearly quarters, f, g are conventional production QDi, gets value of ‘1’ if the value is of functions quarter (i), otherwise it gets value of ‘0’. Several authors have tested the effect The Bilateral Trade Agreement signed in of exports on the economic growth in the 2001 between the US and Vietnam as well following production function, which is as the US antidumping measures against to referred to as the Balassa approach (1978, Vietnamese fishery products (such as frozen cited by Sheehey, 1990) catfish and shrimp) since 2003 may have an effect on Vietnamese fishery exports. ΔY = α0 + α1ΔK + α2ΔL + α3ΔX + e (4) Two binary dummy variables, BTA and AD, where Y is the real GDP, K is the therefore were employed into econometric real capital stock, L is the labor force, models to isolate the possible effects of the and X is merchandise real exports. The trade policies. symbol ∆ indicates annual percentage rates Subsequently, the model (5) is modified of growth. to become an empirical model: This model is based on a hypothesis Yt = f (Lt, Xt, EXRt, QD2t, QD3t, QD4t, BTAt, ADt) that marginal productivities are higher in (6) export production due to the scale effects and externalities associated with export Data description production. Given the labor force and The data for this study are obtained capital stock, expansion of the export sector quarterly from the first quarter of 1997 to will raise GDP growth (Ngoc et al., 2003). the last quarter of 2008 including GDP, In addition, not only has the economic fishery exports revenue, consumer price literature adopted a supply-side approach as index, labor force of Vietnam, the exchange the basic framework to test empirically the rate VN dong against to US dollar, and the relationship between export and growth, but US consumer price index. also nearly all the studies mentioned have The quarterly gross domestic products specified a linear relation. of Vietnam, Yt, is the real GDP with the Consequently, as fishery exports base year of 1994. The value of GDP is can act as an engine of economic growth billion VND. The three month summation
4. 58 Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 of fishery exports value is considered as the quarter. The quarterly data of CPI, CPI-VNt, value of fishery exports in respective quarter and US Consumer Price Index, CPI_USt, in USD, Xt. Labor variable, Lt, gets quarterly is the average value in three months of a data of Vietnam labor force, collected from quarter, collected from GSO and the US data of GSO (2009). Getting daily data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, respectively. the website www.oanda.com, the quarterly Descriptive statistics of the variables are data of exchange rate of VND against USD, described in Table 1. EXRt, is average value of three months of a Table 1 Descriptive statistical spreadsheet of all variables GDP Labor Fishery Exchange exports (billion (million rate CPI - VN CPI - US revenue VND) persons) (million USD) (VND/USD) Mean 84996.60 40.08 547 6.88E-05 106.79 184.30 Median 80340.00 40.08 533 6.73E-05 107.00 182.10 Maximum 144873.00 47.40 143 8.86E-05 126.00 219.30 Minimum 47270.00 34.52 137 6.03E-05 96.00 159.57 Std. Dev. 24409.37 3.80 306 6.49E-06 6.03 17.30 For accuracy in modeling, values of Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller variables of the model would be adjusted. tests. Johansen Test was used to test co- First, real values of GDP with the base integration between the datasets. year of 1994 were divided by amount of III. Results And Discussion labor force to get GDP per capita values Results of unit root tests for variables for the variable of YCAP. Second, the real YCAP, REXR, XCAP show that these exchange rate variable, REXR, gets data from the nominal exchange rate divided by variables are trend stationary time series in the ratio between Vietnamese CPI (CPI- their logarithm. The datasets of YCAP and VN) and the United States CPI (CPI-US) XCAP are suspected to be cointegrated. when the United States CPI is collected However, Johansen test indicates a from website of the US Department cointegration between the two datasets of Labor. Data for fishery exports was of lnYCAP and lnXCAP, allowing for an collected from Fistenet (2009), divided application of Error Correction Modeling by Vietnamese CPI to get their real method to reconcile the short-run behavior of values before being divided by amount these variables with their long-run behavior. of Vietnamese labor to obtain values for In the method, Vector Error Correction the variable of XCAP – fishery exports per estimation is conducted to capture a possible capita. For stationary test, unit root tests endogeneity between lnYCAP and lnXCAP for all series of variables YCAP, REXR, datasets. The estimation results are presented XCAP were implemented with Dickey- in Table 2.
5. Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 59 Table 2 Vector Error Correction Estimates Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1 lnYCAP(-1) 1.000000 lnXCAP(-1) -0.353490 [-3.47723] C -4.417842 Error Correction: dlnYCAP dlnXCAP CointEq1 -0.186955 0.524847 [-2.58688] [ 1.13754] dlnYCAP(-1) 0.152659 0.731477 [ 0.99666] [ 0.74804] dlnXCAP(-1) -0.084653 -0.443494 [-3.38643] [-2.77897] Constant -0.918004 1.353921 [-1.40072] [ 0.32359] lnREXR -0.063581 0.205208 [-0.87808] [ 0.44391] BTA -0.017598 0.003412 [-1.36845] [ 0.04156] AD 0.011578 -0.032475 [ 1.15793] [-0.50871] QD2 0.649421 0.996612 [ 8.87885] [ 2.13429] QD3 0.268454 0.564955 [ 11.3991] [ 3.75762] QD4 0.521871 0.641232 [ 14.7913] [ 2.84679] R-squared 0.993699 0.812120 Adj. R-squared 0.992124 0.765150 Notes: t-statistics in square brackets Effects of fishery exports on not much surplus in fishery production to Vietnamese GDP export. Values of fishery exports in second The regression estimated that, in quarters are higher than that in first quarters short-run, fishery exports affect much on because all production activities in Vietnam GDP (absolute value of t-stat is 3.386) but start in normal operation after holiday. The the sign of this relationship is minus. Values figures are improved well in third and fourth of both GDP and fishery exports in all three quarters in efforts to achieve annual export quarters 2, 3 and 4 increase relative to that targets of fisheries enterprises. in quarter 1 because annual quarter 1 is the Real exchange rate and the bilateral holiday season of Vietnamese people. Most trade agreement between Vietnam and the of the people are likely to relax and get fun US seem to decrease Vietnamese GDP and after one working hard year, leading to an increase fishery exports but these effects are decease in the productivity in Vietnamese not statistically significant. The results are economy and a reduction in GDP values. unlikely to favor the recent argument that Further, in the first quarter of each year, most a devaluation of Vietnam dong against to of Vietnamese fishery outputs are prioritized US dollar would increase exports and in its to serve domestic market, thus, there is turn, increase GDP. The US anti-dumping
6. 60 Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011 measures since 2003 against to fishery in the developing process of Vietnamese imports from Vietnam seem to depress economy. The estimation results also Vietnamese fishery exports but the effects confirm the role of sectoral exports in have not enough significance to derive an national economic growth, consistent with economic implication. previous findings by Awokuse (2003), Anh With the Vector Error Correction (2008), Dritsakis (2004), and Thompson and estimation, the empirical model for dlnYCAP Thompson (2010). In further implication, is estimated as following the results have also confirmed the contribution of exports to economic growth dlnYCAP = - 0.19*( lnYCAP - 0.35*lnXCAP t (t-1) (t-1) as documented in lots of literature. Vohra - 4.42) + 0.15*dlnYCAP - 0.08*dlnXCAP ) - (t-1) (t-1 (2001), for instance, finds exports have a 0.92 + 0.65*QD + 0.27*QD + 0.52*QD + e 2 3 4 positive impact on economic growth when a (1) country achieves some level of development, Expanding the differences, the long examining India, Pakistan, the Philippines, run equation for lnYCAP is derived as: Malaysia, and Thailand from 1973 to 1993. lnYCAPt = 0.96*lnYCAP(t-1) – 0.15*lnYCAP(t-2) - In another study, Lee and Pan (2000) provide 0.01*lnXCAP(t-1) + 0.08*lnXCAP(t-2) - 0.08 + evidence of Granger causal relations from 0.65*QD2 + 0.27*QD3 + 0.52*QD4 + e exports to GDP in Hong Kong, Indonesia, (2) South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, The result in Equation 2 estimates Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. an increase in GDP of Vietnam during all Effects of GDP on Vietnamese fishery three quarters 2, 3, and 4 relative to the first exports quarter annually. The BTA between Vietnam In similar derivation, the empirical and the USA seems not to give a significant estimation for the equation of Vietnamese effect (P>0.05) on the growth of Vietnam as fishery exports is expressed as follows: expected (Table 2). dlnXCAP = 0.52*( lnYCAP(-1) - 0.35*lnXCAP(-1) - Although fishery exports depress 4.42) + 0.73*dlnYCAP(-1) - 0.44*dlnXCAP(-1) + Vietnamese GDP in its first lag, it is 1.35 + 0.99*QD2 + 0.56*QD3 + 0.64*QD4 + e estimated to increase the GDP in its second (3) lag with larger effect. The negative effect in short-run of fishery exports on Vietnamese The above equation is expanded and GDP may be explained by the increasing calculated as below: contribution of aquaculture production on LNXCAP = 0.38*lnXCAP(-1) + 0.44*lnXCAP(-2) fishery exports revenue but the farming + 1.25*lnYCAP(-1) – 0.73*lnYCAP(-2) + 1.35 + sector is increasingly depending on imported 0.99*QD2 + 0.56*QD3 + 0.64*QD4 + e inputs such as feed ingredients, medicals and (4) chemicals (Thanh, 2011). In long run, with The long run estimation derived in summation of the two lags, fishery exports Equation 4 confirms an increase in fishery are likely to increase the GDP. For the long exports of Vietnam in all three yearly run estimation, a conclusion can be pointed quarters 2, 3, and 4 relative to the first out that Vietnamese GDP will increase 0.7% quarter. Vietnamese GDP was likely to raise with a 10% c.p. increase in its fishery exports fishery exports in its first lag. Although revenues. In other words, if other variables fishery exports were estimated to be lowered did not vary or their effects on Vietnamese by GDP in second lag, with a summation GDP were not isolated, as value of fishery for two-lag effects, the GDP would increase export revenue doubles, Vietnamese GDP the fishery exports in long run. Vietnamese would increase by 7%, it is so meaningful. fishery exports would increase by 5.2% with This finding has a great economic meaning a 10% increase in its GDP.
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