Xây dựng một cộng đồng vận mệnh chung ASEAN - Trung Quốc

Nội dung text: Xây dựng một cộng đồng vận mệnh chung ASEAN - Trung Quốc

1. THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE COMMUNITY OF COMMON DESTINY OF ASEAN AND CHINA XÂY DỰNG MỘT CỘNG ĐỒNG VẬN MỆNH CHUNG ASEAN - TRUNG QUỐC ZHANG Yujie Tsinghua University Abstract: The construction of the Community of Common Destiny of ASEAN and China is inevitable. Both are located in the east of Asia closely, communicate in economic cooperation and trade actively, have similar culture background and are meeting historical chance to develop together. China is the second largest economy in the world, ASEAN, if it was a single entity, is the sixth largest, the construction of the Community of Common Destiny109 will make the union to be the largest and will benefit the east Asia, even the whole world and promote the updated version of the free trade zone and makes both greater. Keyword: China and ASEAN, Community of Common Destiny, Regional Economy, Free Trade, World Economy Tóm tắt: Xây dựng Cộng đồng vận mệnh chung ASEAN - Trung Quốc là xu thế tất yếu. Cả hai bên nằm gần nhau tại khu vực Đông Á, giao tiếp với nhau thông qua hợp tác kinh tế và giao thương, có nền tảng văn hóa tương đồng và đang có được cơ hội lịch sử để cùng nhau phát triển. Trung Quốc là nền kinh tế lớn thứ hai trên thế giới và ASEAN, nếu là một thể chế thống nhất, đứng thứ sáu về quy mô kinh tế nên việc xây dựng Cộng đồng vận mệnh chung sẽ biến khối này thành nền kinh tế lớn nhất và sẽ mang lại lợi ích cho khu vực Đông Á cũng như toàn thế giới và thúc đẩy phát triển khu vực tự do thương mại cũng như làm cho cả hai bên cùng lớn mạnh. Từ khóa: Trung Quốc và ASEAN, Kinh tế Khu vực, Thương mại Tự do, Kinh tế Thế giới 1. Important Regional Economic Organization-ASEAN 1.1. ASEAN is the largest regional economic organization in the Southeast Asia The predecessor of ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asia， which is found by Malaysia， Philippines and Thailand in July 1981. In August 1967, the foreign ministers of five countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, signed the ASEAN Declaration, more commonly known as the Bangkok Declaration, which meant the creation of ASEAN officially. The aims and purposes of ASEAN are to accelerate economic growth, social progress, and cultural development in the region, to promote regional peace and stability, to promote collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest and to 109 Li, Keqiang, “The Letter of Congratulation for the Opening Ceremony of the Year of China-ASEAN Cultural Exchange”, Beijing, Xinhua News Agency, April 8, 2014. 292
2. maintain close, beneficial co-operation with existing international organizations with similar aims and purposes. The members of ASEAN: In 1980s and 1990s, Brunei(1984), Vietnam(1995), Laos(1997), Myanmar(1997) and Cambodia(1999) join ASEAN, the member scale of AEAN increased from 5 to 10 country members.ASEAN, that covers a land area of 4.4 million square kilometers, has a combined population of approximately 625 million people, 8.8% of the world's population and the organization’s combined nominal GDP had grown to US$2.8 trillion, is an influential regional economic organization. 1.2. The vitality of ASEAN is increasing Since ASEAN was found, it has been well developed in economy and influence and made very great effort in promote the economic integration of Southeast Asian countries. In Jan. 2007, 12th ASEAN Summit planned to build a common community of safety, economy and social culture. In December 2008,the charter turned ASEAN into a legal entity and aimed to create a single free-trade area for the region encompassing 500 million people. As a regional organization, ASEAN plays an important role in international affairs. In the beginning of 1990s, ASEAN first began the process of regional corporation in East Asia, and form a series of corporation mechanisms around ASEAN. ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea(10+3) and the special corporation mechanism between ASEAN and each of the three countries have been developed to be the main channel of corporation in East Asia. Besides, ASEAN built the dialogue partnership with United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Korea, China, Russia and India. To achieve the goal of internal economic integration of ASEAN， 2. TheStrategic Partnership of China and ASEAN In October 2003, the Plan of Action to Implement Joint Declaration onthe ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity was signed in Bali. This is a milestone for the cooperation of China and ASEAN to reach the level of comprehensive strategic cooperation and one of foundation of regional economic integration. In October, 2013,“Joint statement on the 10 anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN strategic partnership”, which was singed in the 16th China-ASEAN summit with confirming 31 behavior principles in political and security, economic, social and cultural, regional and international affairs cooperation, made the development direction of China- ASEAN cooperation clear. 2.1 Cooperation Plan in Economy110 The “updated version” of CFTA includes improving the market environment and the mutual balance of trade,expanding the coverage of the Framework Agreement on China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Area and increasing the mutual trade volume to 500 billion USD in 2015, 1000 billion USD. The process of the Regional 110 “Joint statement on the 10 anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN strategic partnership”, October, 11th 2013. 293
3. Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is accelerated to promote the economic integration of ASEAN. Besides, China-ASEAN Expo was created to be grate platform to communicate in economy and trade. Both are committed to narrow the development gap of ASEAN countries by implementing the IAI include Greater Mekong Subregion(GMS), ASEAN Mekong basin development cooperation (AMBDC) and BIMP-EAGA. It is encouraged for local governments to participate the corporation of “China - ASEAN” with transfer industrial production power to ASEAN countries including textile, wood processing, furniture and light industrial productions to synergy effect. The financial corporation should be enhanced. With deepening cooperation of “Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization” and “The China-ASEAN Inter-bank Association”, the early-warning mechanism of financial risk should be improved. The countries should continue to coordinate air, land and maritime transportation routes, and strengthen the planning and building of connectivity in the areas of telecommunications, power, and cyberspace. In environment protection, agriculture, human resource development and tourism and energy fields, ASEAN and China should be work together. Under the China-ASEAN environmental technology and industrial cooperation framework, the relative technology transfer, capacity building and innovation should be enhanced. 2.2 Cooperation Plan in Society and Culture111 The cooperation in youth education, culture, media, education, tourism, society development, public health and catastrophic management should be promoted. The funds including “China-ASEAN Cooperation Fund”, “China-ASEAN Cooperative Investment Fund” and “China-ASEAN Public Health Fund” is supposed to be play important roles. “2013 is the 10th anniversary of the establishment of China- ASEAN strategic partnership. In the 10 years, the relationship of China and ASEAN has been well developed and achieved a lot. From 2002 to 2012, the mutual trade volume increased 23.6% annually to 40 billion USD; the cumulative investment increased 3 times to more than 10 billion USD. China is the largest trade partner of ASEAN; ASEAN is the second largest partner of China. China and ASEAN is the largest FTA of developing countries in the world. Both communicate closely in culture, the cooperation in civil and social affairs. In 2012, the Chinese tourists to ASEAN countries increased to 9.69 million. Especially, in dealing with financial crisis and natural disaster, both offer mutual support and stay together to enhance the foundation of the public will,”112Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said. 111 Joint statement on the 10 anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN strategic partnership”,Bandar Seri, October 11, 2013. 112 Li, Keqiang, the speech in the 16th China-ASEAN Summit, Bandar Seri Begawan, Xinhua News Agency, October 10, 2013. 294
4. 3. The Future of the Upgraded Version of CAFTA “It is to upgrade CAFTA to increase the mutual trade volume to 100billion USD before 2020.”113 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stated in the 10th China- ASEAN Expo in September 2013. The initiative of the upgraded version of CAFTA is the kind signal for ASEAN to deepen the mutual cooperation. China is going to open more market to ASEAN and plans to discuss to lower the tariff and facilitate the customs duty, and to accelerate the substantive openness in investment with ASEAN. 3.1 The Rich Content of the Upgraded Version of CAFTA The core of the upgraded version of CAFTA is to promote economic openness, to realize the benefits of trade liberalization and to upgrade the level of trade and investment facilitation. The upgraded version includes three main aspects: (1) in commodity trade, both should short the sensitive production list; (2) in service trade, both can promise the higher level than the WTO standard; (3) in investment, China will increase the investment to ASEAN and offer more to ASEAN partners. 3.2 The Feasibility of the Upgraded Version of CAFTA The building of the upgraded version will further promote the mutual openness and deepen economic cooperation. First, the countries in ASEAN are in the beginning period of industrialization and rising stage of economic development, so the need investment, infrastructure and low-price and high-quantity industrial products. China just has such capacity to support the countries. Also, China is in the transformation period, which means there is the need to transfer some industrial production power. Both have complementary industrial needs. Besides, most of the countries in ASEAN are producers of agricultural products with various agricultural products, seafood and fruit. China has a large population with vast potential market. This is a great opportunity for the companies in ASEAN to enter the Chinese market. The upgraded version of CAFTA is going to be major open platform for China and ASEAN. 4. The Deep Collaboration between China and the Members of ASEAN 4.1 The prosperity ofmutual trade between China and Thailand, and the “Sino-Thai Relations Development Planning” China is the second largest trade partner, largest export market and second largest import origin of Thailand. First is the increasing mutual trade volume. In 2012, the mutual trade volume of commodity reached 63.9 billion USD including 2.67 billion USD Thailand to China and 37.2 billion USD from China to Thailand. The major commodities exported from Thailand are plastic products, rubber and mechanical and electrical products, 32 % of export from Thailand to China in 2012 was rubber, 27.9% was mechanical and electrical product, 113 Li, Keqiang, the speech in the 10th China-ASEAN Expo, Bandar Seri, October, 2013. 295
5. China and Thailand have agreed to implement “Sino-Thai Strategic Cooperation United Action Planning (2012-2016)”114 and “Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation on sustainable development” under the guide of “Joint Statement on the establishment of Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation Partnership” sighed in April 2012, and made effort to cooperate in various fields. In trade, investment and financial communicate and cooperation, China and Thailand promised to improve the trade facilitation. To 2015, the mutual trade volume increase to more than 100 billion USD. In improving investment environment, China and Thailand promised to increase the investment in information and communication facilitation, green industry, environment management, green supply chain and other sustainability development fields. The transportation infrastructural investment should be promoted with the railway, road, port and airport network to accelerate the process of local trade and tourism development. Besides, in technology filed, China and Thailand promised to cooperate in IT, aerospace technology and biological medicine and the application of the relative technology. The cooperation in energy also will be enhanced. 4.2 China is the third largest trade partner of Malaysia in Asia China has been the second largest export partner and largest origin of import. In the top ten imported commodities of Malaysia, China has advantage in the mechanical and electrical product, metal products, textile, and furniture and meets the competition from Japan, US, France, Singapore and the countries around Malaysia in chemical product, optical instrument and food. In 2013, the mutual trade volume of China and Malaysia increased to 106 billion USD, Malaysia became the third largest trade partner in Asia right after Japan and South Korea. According to the statement of the statistical bureau of Malaysia, the mutual trade volume of China and Malaysia was 58.5 billion USD in 2017, increased by 7%, was 15.1% of total trade volume of Malaysia. Malaysia exports mechanical and electrical product, animal and vegetable oil, rubber/ rubber products and fossil fuel to China and imports mechanical and electrical product, mechanical equipment, steel and plastic product from China. In 2012, Malaysia imported the products listed above more than 19.8 billion USD, which was 66.6% of the total import form China. 4.3 China is the second export market and first import partner of Indonesia China has been the second export market and first import partner of Indonesia. In the top ten import product list of Indonesia, China has advantages in exportingmechanical and electrical products, metal product, textile, furniture and chinaware and competes in chemical products, plastic products, optical instrument and transportation instrument with Japan, US, France, Germany, South Korea. The mutual trade volume of China and Indonesia has been increasing. According to the statement of the statistical bureau of Indonesia, the mutual trade volume increased to 114 “Sino-Thai Strategic Cooperation United Action Planning (2012-2016)”, Bangkok, Xinhua News Agency, October 12, 2013. 296
6. 51 billion USD in 2012, increased by 36.9% and was 15.3% of total trade volume of Indonesia. Indonesia mainly exports fossil fuel, animal and vegetable oil, ore sand, rubber product and wood pulp to China, and imports various products including mechanical equipment, mechanical and electrical products, steel, base metal and chemical product. In 2012, Indonesia imported the products listed above more than 17.2 billion USD which was 58.7% of the total import form China. 4.4 The economic and trade cooperation of China and Vietnam to reach the trade volume to 100 billion USD in 2017 Vietnam is a developing county, which implement Doi Moi policy in 1986. In 1996, the 8th national congress of Communist Party of Vietnamese proposed to promote the development of industrialization and modernization. In 2001, the 9th national congress of Communist Party of Vietnamese confirmed the communism oriented market economy system and three keys of economic strategy: focusing on industrialization and modernization, developing diverse economic sectors and taking the leading role of state owned economy, building supporting management system of market economy.In the twenty years of Doi Moi policy, the economy of Vietnam developed very fast, the economic scale has been expanding, the open level has been raised and forms the pattern of “leaded by state-owned economy and concomitant with multi-economic elements”. In 2006, Besides, the population of Vietnam is around 90 million (2013). With the development of economy, the life level of citizen has been improved, but the transportation infrastructure is still the weak part of the economy. China is the first import partner of Vietnam with the Vietnamese products including textile, fuel, seafood, shoes, rice, wood product, coffee and rubber. The mutual trade volume of China and Vietnam was more than 40 billion USD in 2011, increased by 33.6% of 2010; in 2012 the mutual trade volume reached 50.4 billion USD. In 2012, the added non-financial direct investment of Chinese enterprise to Vietnam was estimated around 330 million USD, the investment of Vietnam to China till 2011 is 120 million USD. The mutual trade volume of 1991 was 32 million USD, the scale of mutual trade increased more than 1000 times115. During the visiting to Vietnam of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in October 2013, he emphasized China and Vietnam should cooperate together to realize the great opportunity and to create a new situation of pragmatic cooperation.116 Besides, he pointed out that the development of the cooperation of China and Vietnam with great potentials. The economic and trade cooperation should be promoted with the market orientation, the participation of enterprises and the guide of government to strive for goal of the 100 billion USD mutual trade volume in 2017. Meanwhile, the cooperation should be supported with currency swap and settlement. Chinese government encourages Chinese enterprises to invest in Vietnam 115 Liu, Gang, The mutual trade volume increases 1000 times, more policy support is needed, People‘s Daily, February 29, 2012. 116Li, Keqiang, The speech in luncheon party of China-Vietnam industrial and commercial circles, Hanoi, Xinhua News Agency, October 15, 2013. 297
7. in various ways and welcome Vietnamese enterprises to invest in China to deepen the cooperation under the framework of ASEAN. Conclusion China is the second largest economy in the world; ASEAN is the seventh largest economy in the world and the third in Asia. The construction of the Community of Common Destiny of ASEAN and China will benefit all the participators and the development of world economy. The regional economic integration is good for international trade and international fiancé, the building of bilateral and multilateral free trade area will accelerate the flow of resources and the process of the allocation, and promote the facilitation of consumption and production. China and ASEAN can carry out all-round cooperation in infrastructure, environment protection, ocean, agriculture, manufacturing, service, investment, technology, development of the Mekong River basin, tourism, transportation, energy and so on. China has competitive industry system and vast industrial capital; ASEAN has great market potential and huge demand, the high-level cooperation of China and ASEAN in various fields can be a good sample and founding experience to provide a new model for the world economy and contribute to the human civilization. REFERENCE [1] Li, Keqiang, “The Letter of Congratulation for the Opening Ceremony of the Year of China-ASEAN Cultural Exchange”, Beijing, Xinhua News Agency, April 8, 2014. [2]Joint statement on the 10 anniversary of the establishment of China-ASEAN strategic partnership”, Bandar Seri, October 11, 2013. [3]Li, Keqiang, the speech in the 16th China-ASEAN Summit, Bandar Seri Begawan, Xinhua News Agency, October 10, 2013. [4] Li, Keqiang, the speech in the 10th China-ASEAN Expo, Bandar Seri, October, 2013. [5] “Sino-Thai Strategic Cooperation United Action Planning (2012-2016)”, Bangkok, Xinhua News Agency, October 12, 2013. [6]Liu, Gang, The mutual trade volume increases 1000 times, more policy support is needed, People‘s Daily, February 29, 2012. [7] Li, Keqiang, The speech in luncheon party of China-Vietnam industrial and commercial circles, Hanoi, Xinhua News Agency, October 15, 2013. 298