Application of thetheory of constraints (toc) to improve the productivity of vietnamese enterprises

Nội dung text: Application of thetheory of constraints (toc) to improve the productivity of vietnamese enterprises

1. APPLICATION OF THETHEORY OF CONSTRAINTS (TOC) TO IMPROVE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF VIETNAMESE ENTERPRISES Assoc. Prof. Ta Van Loi1 – Ph.D Do Anh Duc2 Abstract: In the context of international integration, improving and promoting enterprise productivity is the decisive factor for the competitiveness of the economy and each enterprise. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) has been taught at many universities around the world and has been successfully applied in many large organizations, such as: Boeing, AT&T, P&G, General Motor, 3M, Alcate, However, studies on TOC in Vietnam are too limited that could help enterprises to understand and apply this model. TOC is derived from the theory of target with the advantages of ease of application, fast implementation time (forced), low cost to help the competitiveness of the Small and medium enterprises in Europe and America can compete with Japanese–style governance. This is also a very worthwhile model to learn and apply in Vietnamese businesses in the current development context and conditions. This article introduces the process of formation and development of the TOC, clarifying the characteristics of Vietnamese enterprises and the possibility of applying TOCs to improve productivity for Vietnamese enterprises, and finally the number of recommendations to apply the TOC to increase the productivity of Vietnamese enterprises. The research results will provide a new method of business productivity management, contributing to improving the productivity and quality of products and goods of Vietnamese enterprises. Keywords:enterprise productivity, management model, theory of constraints. 1. INTRODUCTION TOC was first introduced by Eliyahu M. Goldratt in 1984. The TOC is a continuous improvement focusing on identifying and managing organizational limitations in order to achieve the overall goal. Constraints is understood as any factor that restricts the system from achieving the set goals. The essence of TOC is the capacity of any production line is determined by the weakest link in that line. Each system has constraints that prevent companies from fulfilling their ultimate goals. Constraints may include: constraints on policies (working day, shift, break time,etc.), technology level, quality of human resources, supplier's ability to supply raw materials, the market demand etc.Constraints affects the productivity of the entire system, therefore, it is necessary to focus on immediately solving the constraints. The identification and management of the constraints are aimed to achieve the overall goal of the entire enterprise, helping managers to optimize the use of resources, improve product quality, and minimize costs and reduce waste and to satisfy customer requirements. There is at least one constraint in any business, which could be resource constraints or internal or external policy constraint. The goal of any business can be quantified in one common unit is profit. The TOChelps to identify and manage constraint points to achieve the overall goal of the enterprise. Identifying the constraints by TOC is very intuitive, specific, and can be recognized by any organization. The organization will use 1 Associate Professor, School of Trade and International Economics, National Economics University. Email: loitv@neu.edu.vn. 2 Doctor, School of Trade and International Economics, National Economics University. Email: ducda@neu.edu.vn. 652
2. its intrinsic competencies to implement methods of identifying constraints, ways to address them, and that are the foundation for continual improvement. 2. THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS–NEW MANAGEMENT METHODS TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY FOR BUSINESSES 2.1. The formation of Theory of Constraints In 1963, Mewes with publications on the Theory of Power–oriented Management introduced a new concept of governance on governance power, which focused to handle on the key points to achieve efficiency in governance. In 1973, with the Energo–Kybernetic System (EKS, 1971), he introduced the Theory of Bottleneck to detect and focus on solving the key points, critical barriers in governance to achieve efficiency results in corporate governance. In 1984, Goldratt and Cox introduced "The Goal", which formulated a holistic philosophy of a TOC to help organizations achieve their goals continuously. The basic premise of TOC is that organizations can be measured and controlled by variations in three metrics: throughput, operating costs, and inventory. An inventory is the total amount the system has invested in buying things it plans to sell. The operating cost is the total amount that the system spends to convert inventory into throughput. Throughput is the rate at which the system makes money through sales. This model was completed by Goldratt in 1999 with two parts: Theory of Constraintsand implementation method. Based on the efforts of the Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute (AGI), many companies have begun to participate in TOC adoption worldwide. TOCis mentioned quite commonly. The number of publications on the TOC topic has increased significantly. The number of companies implementing TOC continues to increase and includes major players in most industries such as General Motors, Ford, 3M, Rockwell, Texas Instrument, Johnson Controls, United Airlines, the US Air Force, Morton International Automactor, EMC Corporation, Ketema A&E and Delta Airlines. Some have already started development programs for their own internal TOC systems. In 1995, a non–governmental organization AIAG whose function is to create standards in the automotive industry, applied requirements for suppliers to implement TOC concepts in their operations themselves. Up to now, TOC has developed through 5 main phases (Figure 1), as follows: Figure 1: The evolution of TOC (1) The secret algorithm: The TOC has an unspectacular beginning, which is not the result of a production management vision but the result of a planning program to increase output called "Optimized production timetables" by a physicist, Goldratt in the early 1970s. This program acts as a secret algorithm that tripled factory output in a short period of time. In 1980, Goldratt introduced the Optimized Production Timetables(later renamed to Optimized Production Technology) in the United States, when he submitted an article to the APICS International Conference (Goldratt, 1980). Fry et al. (1992) described the program as comprising four main components: BUILDNET, SERRVE, SPLIT and optimized production technology (originally called BRAIN). Production technology is optimized and SERRVE contains the actual algorithm used to schedule production while BUILDNET and SPLIT collect and sort the data in the required format. Organization of the data in BUILDNET allows for optimized production technology to efficiently create key production schedules for bottleneck locations 653
3. (Goldratt, 1988b).Rapidly Optimized Production Technology is adopted by several large corporations. Three years after its introduction, Bylinski (1983) reported a number of successful Optimized Production Technology deployment projects, including two General Electric factories. In the September/October 1985 Harvard Business Review, Aggarwal reported that 100 companies worldwide purchased Optimized Production Technology for a minimum price of $ 2 million. (2) The articulating drum–buffer–rope scheduling stage: In 1984, Goldratt and Cox wrote "The Goal", a manufacturing novel in which the main character, Alex Rogo, saved his factory with the help of some question of the advisor, Jonah. Objectives are written largely to educate facilities in the optimal use of production technology to help them adhere to the optimal production technology schedule; however, it has become a bestseller with many companies trying to implement the concepts found in the book. The drum–buffer–rope principle has been applied in the analysis of the Theory of Constraints. The constraint acts as the drum that determines pace, with the modes of the rope of specific stages operate, and the buffer will make the constraints work smoothly. This theory states that, by removing existing constraints in the system, the capacity of the entire system will be increased and thus the output can be increased. Therefore, the content of the theory is to focus to search for constraints in the system and eliminate it because each production line cannot run faster than the slowest one, if there is inventory, it will increase operating fees. In order to be able to identify problems that constrain an organization's systems, according to Goldratt, a effect–cause–effect approach can be used. In fact, this is the only viable technique we know of for identifying constraint points, especially if it is a policy constraint that does not give rise to permanent material constraints, but only give rise to temporary or discrete constraints. (3) Articulating the TOC measures stage: According to Goldratt (1983), cost accounting principles when applied to measure local performance, product costs, and capital investment decisions provide misleading or incorrectinformation to decision–makers, this may result in the implementation of policies or practices that are inconsistent with company goals. Smith (2000) asserted that the theory behind financial accounting is valid for past performance reporting purposes; however, actions required to maximize throughput and cash flows now and in the future to maximize throughput and cash flow nowand in the future are not the same as minimizing localunit cost and maximizing short–run reported net income. As a result, the continued use of reporting and internal controls is increasingly inappropriate in the context of global competition. Although based on different research backgrounds, Kaplan and Johnson reached similar conclusions, independently of Goldratt, when they developed Activity–based costing (Kaplan, 1983, 1984, 1986; Johnson and Kaplan, 1987).To shorten the gap between corporate finance metrics and business unit/factory performance measurement, Goldratt and Cox (1984) introduce three measures of factory–level performance, including: throughput, inventory and operating expenses. Factory–level measurements reinforce a company's goal of maximizing profitability by emphasizing revenue generation while reducing inventory and operating expenses (Cox et al., 1997). Factory–level measures do not move directly to the process level, thus they will replace the traditional measures of efficiency of net return, return on investment, and cash flow. (4) Thinking processes applied to various topics stage: Thinking process tools provide rigorous and systematic conditions for identifying and solving unstructured business problems related to management policies (Schragenheim and Dettmer, 2000). A new application tool has emerged in response to the TOC into the field of strategy building. Goldratt et al. (2002) introduced the strategy and tatics tree model (STT), which depicts a hierarchical structure between goals, objectives, intermediate goals and tactics. The strategy and tatics tree model consists of a series of interrelated strategic goals and tactics strung into a series of prerequisites, each of which is required to achieve the common goal. (5) TOC project management stage: TOC Project Management is designed to create schedules that deliver projects on time and provide a way to proactively manage them, to minimize harm caused by 654
4. changes in task completion. TOC project manager has 3 main differences: the method of binding uptime, using buffers, and eliminating resource conflicts.Leach (2000) described TOC Project Management's successes in the IT sector with companies like Texas Instruments, Lucent Technologies, Honeywell and Harris Semiconductor completing projects in half or less time than similar projects or against that industry standardization. In contrast, Standaish Group reports that, within the Information Systems projects that are traditionally managed, only 16.2% are being completed on time and on budget. The rest, more than half are completely abandoned while the others, on average, account for only 42% of the originally designated function, though costs are up 189% from the initial estimate. 2.2. The content of the Theory of Constraints Figure 2. Basic contents of the TOC The concept of the TOC is a system of components from identifying, pacing, and processing the constraint, creating a repetitive operation to achieve human goals in the process. Thus, it can be seen that the TOC is a complete system of components that fully reflects the way of administration from identifying the point of the constraint, pacing, and handling the problem. And again and again to achieve the goals. The basic contents of the TOC (see Figure 2) include: (1) Identify the constraint: The constraint may include materials, machines, people, management If it is an important constraint, it should be handled depending on the level that affects the ultimate goal of the business. (2) Exploit the constraints: Those constraints that cause harm to the target need to be sovled, those constraints that are necessary to achieve the target need to be exploited in the short term, but will be eliminated in order to increase the goods throughput of the business. The pace of production will increase the immediate efficiency of the business to avoid unnecessary waste. (3) Subordinate & Synchornize to the Constraint: All other parts from components or other semi– finished products should be reduced to accommodate the detected constraints. That will help reduce costs as soon as problem is identified because the constraint determines the overall business throughput and productivity, thus optimizing the use of resources at a given output level. (4) Elevate the performance of the constraint: While leaving that constraint, the business automatically accept the weaknesses of its business to rationalize, however, at this stage, it must increase the productivity of the constraint in the system. Attempts to resolve these constraintas increase the overall operating productivity of the system. As the constraint increases, the unconstraints points are removed gradually as the constraint productivity increases, therefore the productivity of the whole system increases until the detection of the new constraint appeared. (5) Repeat the process: When step 4 is working on discovering new constraints, immediately go back to step 1 to establish a new process, do not let inertia hinder the application of TOC. Note that 655
5. TOC is a regular and continuous process and handles all situations that occur. Thinking is always critical and finds constraints to differentiate into the basic policy to increase system productivity. All stage costs need to be calculated and monitored to account for those changes. Thus, the TOC value analysis framework needs to be thoroughly applied. 2.3. Apply Theory of Constraints to increase the productivity of the business In the stages of TOC process, the most obvious impact on firm productivity can be seen on the following aspects: Productivity of parts production:Due to the loop nature, all stages of the process increase productivity. The handling of congestion points will increase congestion productivity. The purpose of business is to make profit, so there are two ways to affect productivity by channel are as follows: (i) Increase product quantity: Increasing product quantity will inevitably increase the productivity of the production stage in terms of labor productivity, capital productivity, equipment productivity. (ii) Improve product quality: It is inevitable that businesses have the opportunity to increase selling prices, inevitably increase productivity and use of capital, if they keep the old selling prices, they will increase their competitiveness and appear "attractive" from the market when demand. Increase and "pull" businesses to increase the number of sales, in order to make the next business cycle increase the amount of production produced, thus increasing productivity. Overall productivity:The TOC is repeating at "bottleneck" stages like step–by–step troubleshooting to increase overall productivity. When a stage is the bottleneck, it is being increased in productivity than the other reamaining stages, then the moves to another step, step by step until it is time to return to the original even though before the production has been increased. Therefore, in the long term, the TOC is considered to increase the overall productivity of the firm. Business simulation of pure drinking water products has 3 important production stages: cap production, bottle production and bottling with the output levels are as follows: Figure 3. Simulate the process of applying Theory of Constraints Stage QT Bottleneck Sovle Stage QT Bottleneck Sovle Cap 7,000 Cap 4,000 X 7,000 production production Bottle 8,000 Bottle 5,000 production production Bottling 6,000 x 9,000 Bottling 6,000 Stage QT Bottleneck Sovle Cap 7,000 production Bottle 5,000 x 8,000 production Bottling 6,000 Note: – Red: old output level, Green: new output level. – Step 1 to 3 from left to right, and loop continuously. 656
6. Therefore, before applying the TOC, the productivity of this enterprise is determined by the productivity of the stage with the lowest output of 4,000 products/day. After the management cycle under the TOC will increase to 7,000 products/day, at this time there is a constraint in the bottles production stage at 5,000 products/day, focusing on processing to 8,000 products/day, that occur the constraint is the bottling stage with 6,000 products/day. If the TOC group continues to improve and remove this bottleneck and increase productivity to 9,000 products/day, then the loop shows that the first stage of 7,000 products/day becomes the new bottleneck.End of this cycle, the overall productivity increased to 7,000 products per day, accounted for 40% increase compared to previously applied the TOC. 2.4. The role of the Theory of Constraints in enterprises On the basis of the principle concepts, it shows that TOC is the way of operating from the stages of identifying, pacing, and handling obstacles, it has the following important roles: Firstly, the TOC will clearly identify its constraints in the production and business process in order to achieve the goals of the enterprise. In management, there are two states that businesses often encounter: (i) There are always problems, one after the other, especially in the field of business and production; (ii) Confident there is no problem to worry about when everything is running smoothly. Sometimes, the stability makes enterprises ambiguous about their competitiveness and cannot cope when an incident occurs. Therefore, the TOC help businesses to avoid both states. Clearly identify your own shortcomings to overcome. Secondly, the TOC will create a pace to optimize operational efficiency based on its constraints in the production and business process. This process has a highly efficient role in making optimal use of resources. Sometimes irrationalities keep happening and unnecessary waste comes along. Many managers depend on experiences to operate often do not pay attention to the pace of the process, sometimes make decision to maintain, to satisfy all but the goal of the management must be sacrificed in short–term. That also reduces the competitiveness of businesses. Thirdly, the TOC will determine its centred constraints to overcome in the production and business process. The role of the model is to resolve impediments in the direction of elimination, which means increasing productivity both in terms of quantity and time. Therefore, the role of the TOC is to improve the labor productivity of enterprises in both the short and long term. Fourthly, the TOC will repeat the process from identifying, pacing and handling its constraints in the production and business process, thus the role of this governance model helps businesses to increase in productivity continuously. Its role serves as a driving force for continuous improvement and helps businesses increase sustainable competitiveness. In other words, the TOC creates a mechanism and dynamics for innovation capacity for enterprises. Current improvement achievements do not determine future success if improvements are not made regularly. Therefore, the TOC has a long–term eternal dynamism for business growth. 3. VIETNAMESE ENTERPRISES AND THE ABILITY TO APPLY THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS According to the statistics of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, as of December 31, 2019, the whole country had 758,610 operating enterprises, of which: 508,770 enterprises were operating in the service sector, accounting for 67.1% in the entire corporate sector of the country. Industry and construction sector has 239,755 enterprises, accounting for 31.6%. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector accounts for over 95% the total number of registered enterprises, creating about 60% of GDP, creating more than 90% of jobs. This affirms that SMEs are the main pillar in the country's economy. 657
7. Up to the present time, the TOC is too limited, so very few enterprises understand and apply this model. Most enterprises are in the stage of learning about Korean and Japanese management experiences such as Just in time, Lean production Besides, Vietnamese enterprises also have many specific characteristics. To be able to disseminate and apply the TOC to improve productivity for Vietnamese enterprises, we need to deeply analyze these characteristics and point out the possibility and way of applying TOCs, in particular as follow: Firstly, in terms of business size, the micro and small scale enterprises have the highest proportion of businesses. As of December 31, 2018, there were 382,444 micro enterprises, accounting for 62.6% of all enterprises nationwide; there are 189,879 small–scale businesses, accounting for 31.1%; 21,306 medium–sized enterprises, accounting for 3.5%; there are 17,008 large–scale enterprises, accounting for only 2.8%. In which, these small and medium–sized enterprises currently belong to the private enterprise sector. Small and medium–sized businesses are often constrained by human and financial resources. Therefore, it is more difficult to provide large resources to implement the synchronous TOC application on an enterprise–wide scale than to select and prioritize simple tools and techniques that do not require investment and technology. Secondly, the technology level of Vietnamese enterprises is now more backward than that of other countries, especially state–owned enterprises and SMEs. The machinery and equipment being used in Vietnamese enterprises is only 10% modern, 38% average and 52% are obsolete and very out of date; the rate of using high technology is only 2%; Vietnamese enterprises invest in technology innovation very low, only about 0.2%–0.3% of total revenue The level of technology equipment in non–state SMEs is only 3% compare to that in large enterprises With this feature, enterprises cannot apply TOC synchronously, they should only apply simple techniques suitable to their technological level. Only after the business has developed to a higher level of technology should the high level TOC tools be applied. Thirdly, the production management capacity of Vietnamese enterprises is currently limited. The management skills of the management team and business leaders have not met the requirements in competitive and flexible production and business conditions, especially up to 80% of businesses currently do not pay attention to digital transformation and has not yet prepared highly qualified human resources for digital transformation. Applying TOC means businesses need to have a strategy to manage and control the change when switching from traditional production methods to production according to TOC. Therefore, it is best for Vietnamese enterprises to gradually change and pilot a few areas before expanding to the whole enterprise. This job will help businesses build a habit of TOC before taking the next steps in the journey to apply TOC. Fourthly, the quality of employees in Vietnamese enterprises is not highly qualified. According to the General Statistics Office, in the second quarter of 2019, the trained workforce with diplomas and certificates only accounts for 22.37% (workers with university or higher degrees account for 10.82%; college level 3.82%, intermediate level 4.65% and primary school 3.08% of the total workforce). The number of trained workers is only 1/3 of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, while in many countries, the trained labor rate has reached over 50%. This number does not match the number as the third ASEAN population of Vietnam, just after Indonesia and the Philippines. Low quality of workers leads to low self–awareness and mind–changing perception for TOC development. Only when employees are fully aware of the role and personal responsibility for TOC development will the business achieve full success. Therefore, creating a habit and gradually changing employees is a necessary first step for TOC to have a chance of success. However, the fact that high surplus rate of young graduates from colleges and universities (49% in 2018 in Vietnam) demonstrate a mismatch in skills and knowledge between the training offered at the tertiary level and what firms require (Duc & Ha, 2020). 658
8. Fifthly, corporate culture reflects the culture of Vietnamese people. In the context of Vietnam's increasingly deep integration with the world economy, more and more Vietnamese enterprises invest and do business abroad, in which many brands have achieved important successes in the local market. However, in the process of reaching the big sea, Vietnamese businesses have encountered many differences in language, customs, religion, beliefs, tastes, consumption habits causing difficulties for businesses in the development and integration process. The TOC culture often focuses on teamwork, information sharing, teamwork spirit, and a sense of continuous improvement. It can be seen that the cultural characteristics of Vietnamese enterprises still bear many features that are not similar to the culture of TOC. This contradiction results in many firms being unsuccessful in applying TOC. Therefore, in order to apply TOC successfully, enterprises need to have a long–term change management strategy, applied step by step. Finally, successful TOC application means that businesses must set up a production system that "pulls" from input to output. However, at present, Vietnam has not formed a stable and complete supply chain system. Supporting industries, supply chains are underdeveloped, manufacturers have to import goods from abroad with high costs, large volumes of imports, high risks, and unstable quality. The linkage and cooperation in production between Vietnamese enterprises is currently not high. Each business is often only interested in its own benefit but ignores the benefit of its partners. Uncertainty in the supply chain coupled with the lack of linkages among partners is a barrier for businesses to fully implement TOC. Therefore, in the current period, enterprises should only focus on internal production TOC activities but cannot develop TOC outside the enterprise. This is an important note for businesses to choose a suitable TOC application strategy. 4. RECOMMENDATIONS TO APPLY THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS TO INCREASE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF VIETNAMESE ENTERPRISES According to the goal of the 712 program on improving the productivity and quality of products and goods of Vietnamese enterprises by 2020, the TOC is needed to be studied for more options inoperating productivity management. Therefore, the topic "Research, build, disseminate, and guide the application of the TOC to improve productivity for Vietnamese enterprises" has set a target to study the TOC, from there, built TOCthat suitable to the characteristics of Vietnamese businesses to disseminate and guide Vietnamese enterprises to apply in order to improve productivity. The study conducted dissemination and guidance on the application of the TOC to improve enterprise productivity in 6 enterprises in the North and the South where this model was first known as follows (see Table 1): Table 1. List of Vietnamese enterprises are guided to apply and implement TOC No. Name Address Website 1 Rubber 75 One member Limited Hanoi Company 2 Minh Ngoc Production and Trade Hung Yen Province LimitedCompany 3 Truc Thon Joint Stock Company Hai Duong Province 4 Nutreco LimitedCompany Bac Ninh Province 5 Dien Quang High Technology Ho Chi Minh City LimitedCompany 6 Saigon New Port Corporation Ho Chi Minh City 659
9. Based on the assessment of the current situation of Vietnamese enterprises together with the results of the trial application of TOC in 6 enterprises, the study proposes some recommendations for the study and application of the TOC to continue replicating across the country are as follows: Firstly, research and study from experience applying the TOC in the US, Europe or Taiwan, Korea in order to grasp the content, conditions and effectiveness of applying the model. Especially countries with many similarities with Vietnam such as Taiwan and Korea. These countries are the Asian "dragons" that have experienced a strong development and are able to compete with Japan in a number of areas, although these countries are the latter developed countries. Enterprises in Taiwan are mostly small and medium enterprises, while Korean enterprises are mostly large corporations, which will help Vietnamese enterprises to study more comprehensively. However, it is preferable to choose Taiwanese enterprises first because of their relevance to most Vietnamese small and medium enterprises. Secondly, survey and investigate Vietnamese enterprises on the conditions for applying the TOC, screening and typically applying a number of enterprises to improve the productivity of Vietnamese enterprises to that developed the TOC suitable for Vietnamese enterprises. The current enterprise surveys are also done annually and continuously, thus, reduce the cost when deploy the surveys. Moreover, Vietnamese enterprises are also in need of increasing business productivity in order to increase their competitiveness in the context of the 4.0 technology revolution. Therefore, the force to choose and early apply the TOC also helps businesses achieve that goal. Thirdly, strengthening the promotion and dissemination of the TOC to gradually raise awareness of leaders and change the awareness of employees in the enterprise. Avoiding governance shocks when applying, the TOC often increases pressure by constrains, so raising awareness and training awareness for employees is always an important factor for successful application of the TOC for Vietnamese enterprises. Fourthly, there should be support from relevant State agencies in encouraging and facilitating the material and mechanism for the application of the TOC for Vietnamese enterprises. First of all, allow businesses to spend reasonable and valid applicable fees to train and apply. There are programs available to assist businesses to innovate in TOC applications. Even incentive and create support funds for a number of small and medium enterprises that do not have the resources to implement the process of reforming management methods. Fifthly, Industry Associations focus on supporting the training and widespread dissemination of new governance methods, especially the TOC, organizing seminars, seminars to speed up the process of applying and creating a wide discussion forum helps enterprises quickly approach the TOC. Draw out typical lessons and help enterprises with timely useful information when they want to apply the TOC. REFERENCES: 1. Bylinski, G. (1983). An efficiency guru with a brown box. Fortune, 108, 120–132. 2. Cox III, J.F., Howe, W.G., Boyd, L.H., (1997). Transfer pricing effects on locally measured organizations. Industrial Management, 39(2), 20–29. 3. Duc D.A (2020). Innovation in Vietnam in the context of Industry 4.0. Economy and Management Review, 33, 57–60. 4. Duc D.A & Ha D.L.H (2020). An analytical framework considering the effect of education and training on firms’ innovation. Proceedings International Research Conference Innovation & Entrepreneurship for Suitable Development Goals: A Journey of 5 Years and the Path Ahead, 137–147. 660
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