Đánh giá ảnh hưởng của hiệp định thương mại tự do Việt Nam EU với hoạt động logistics Việt Nam: Cơ hội và thách thức

Nội dung text: Đánh giá ảnh hưởng của hiệp định thương mại tự do Việt Nam EU với hoạt động logistics Việt Nam: Cơ hội và thách thức

1. ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE VIETNAM- EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (EVFTA) ON VIETNAM’S LOGISTICS INDUSTRY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ĐÁNH GIÁ ẢNH HƯỞNG CỦA HIỆP ĐỊNH THƯƠNG MẠI TỰ DO VIỆT NAM- EU VỚI HOẠT ĐỘNG LOGISTICS VIỆT NAM: CƠ HỘI VÀ THÁCH THỨC Nguyen Minh Trang, MA Thuongmai University Abstract This study aims to identify opportunities and challenges that the EVFTA has impacted on Vietnam's logistics industry. Through researching on Vietnam's logistics performance reports in recent years and studies related to the Free Trade Agreement, the author conducted comprehensive evaluations so as to propose some solutions to help Vietnam's logistics industry take advantage of opportunities, while handling challenges and risks that may be encountered when the agreement is applied. Keywords: logistics, EVFTA. Tóm tắt Mục đích nghiên cứu tập trung nhận dạng rủi ro và thách thứ mà EFVTA tác động đến lĩnh vực Logistics của Việt Nam. Thông qua nghiên cứu các báo cáo về hoạt động Logistics Việt Nam trong những năm gần đây và các bài viết có liên quan đến Hiệp định Thương mại tự do, tác giả đã tiến hành những đánh giá để có thể đưa ra một số giải pháp giúp cho Logistics Việt Nam tận dụng được cơ hội đồng thời xử lý các thách thức và rủi ro có thể gặp phài khi Hiệo định có hiệu lực. Từ khóa: Logistics, EFVTA. Introduction The Vietnam- EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which was recently approved and ratified on 12th February 2019, is one of the largest new generation free trade agreement that Vietnam ever negotiated. Participation in EVFTA has given Vietnam the opportunity to enhance sustainable economic development and national competitiveness. Thereby, attracting more foreign direct investments and reduction and elimination tariffs, EVFTA is participated by Vietnam and 28 European Union member states. On December 1st, 2015, the negotiation rounds of EVFTA was officially announced to be concluded and its officially full text was published on February 1st, 2016. Mainly in 17 chapters, two protocols and several attached memorandums, the contents including trade in goods, services, investment, trade defence, competition, state enterprises, government procurement, intellectual property, sustainable development, legal and institutional issues, the EVFTA is considered a comprehensive, high quality agreement that ensures a balance benefits for both Vietnam and the EU. Once in effect, the EVFTA will 569
2. help boost Vietnam’s export capacity, enhance markets, improve domestic products competitive advantage. To provide a new driving force for the growth of Vietnam international trade, logistics is believed to play a strategic role which strongly affect the efficiency of international business. (Hollweg et al, 2017). In 2017, the EU is Vietnam’s second largest export market ($38.3 billion), behind America ($41.5 billion). In the ASEAN region, Vietnam is now the second most important partner of EU (after Singapore) (Khoat et al, 2019). Therefore, with EVFTA, Vietnam’s export will be benefited, in particular, directly benefited being textile and footwear; seafood, indirectly benefiting from international trade such as logistics. Besides improving the quality of products, investing on logistics is believed to build-up more success in trade between Vietnam and EU members (Van Hoi, 2019). In recent years, logistics is remarkably outstanding with potential development; according to Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Vietnam logistics ranked 39th among 160 countries in 2018, putting Vietnam ahead Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (PWC,2019). Moreover, logistics companies grew on average up to 14-16% (US$40-42 billion) per year (Cameron et al,2018). Logistics takes part in many crucial parts of exporting operation for instance: packaging, inventory, transportation and warehousing. In EVFTA, the agreements do not mention logistics, however a number of agreements involving specific services of logistics are signed such as: transportation, warehousing. By making supply chains more efficient, logistics allow manufacturers, transportation carriers, logistics service providers to reduce delays, as a result growing output per unit of time while decreasing the cost of doing business (Blancas et al,2014). This research aims to identify and assess both opportunities and challenges of the EVFTA to Vietnam’s logistics industry, combined with the present situation of Vietnam logistics, give some recommendation in order to improve the efficiency of logistics for Vietnamese enterprises. 1. Research methodology With the main purpose of clarifying practical matters of Vietnam’s logistics, as well as giving some predictions about the opportunities and challenges which EVFTA brings to Vietnam logistics, the study proposes some solutions to Vietnam enterprises to boost logistics, which is believed to play an important role in increasing exports activities between Vietnam- EU The paper was made on the basis of using secondary data collection methods through summarizing and analyzing a number of domestic and international scientific research papers published in prestigious scientific journals and Internet. The writings of foreign authors are used as typical lessons related to the effects of free trade agreement. The writings of Vietnamese author are used as a reference source for the overview of logistics in Vietnam in general. The domestic articles provide enormous and reliable information to identify the opportunities and challenges of EVFTA, thereby suggest some reasonable solutions to promote the development of logistics and increase the nation competitiveness in general and enterprises in particularly. 570
3. 2. Literature review 2.1. Overview of EVFTA Free trade agreement (FTA) is an agreement between two or more countries on which the countries agree with certain obligations that involve trade in goods and services, encourage investment, improve the rules affecting such issues as intellectual property, e- commerce and government procurement. (Dent, 2006). FTAs can help enterprises to enter and compete more easily in the global marketplace by reducing tariffs and other provisions. While the specifics of each FTA vary, they generally provide for the decreasing of trade barriers and the establishment of a more stable and transparent trading and investment environment. As a result, this makes it easier and cheaper for enterprises to export their products and services to trading partner markets. (Baier, 2004). Regarding to Vietnam, the benefits of EVFTA will enable Vietnam’s economic development to access to a wider range of competitive market, as consequence, Vietnam’s enterprises have to innovate products and services with new technologies, high quality. Moreover, EVFTA bring more foreign direct investment to reduce government’s subsidies as well as significantly grow enterprises capital (VCCI,2019). With the two agreements Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and EVFTA- Vietnam tends to prioritize establishing more international trade partners outside ASEAN. According to the EVFTA Report 2018 by the European Chamber of Commerce (EuroCham), 72% of EuroCham members believed that the EVFTA will make Vietnam more competitive and turn it into a hub for European businesses. Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment predict that the EVFTA could increase Vietnam’s GDP by 15% by 2035, which make Vietnam remain sustainable development. (EuroCham,2018). 2.2. Commitments of EVFTA regarding logistics EVFTA has no definition of logistics services, nor does use this term in any related commitment. This agreement only has commitment involving freight (e.g. road, rail, air, sea transport) and freight assistance. The commitment on opening the logistics service market, which is mainly mentioned in chapter 8 of the agreement, is about the limitations, barriers and conditions that Vietnam and EU partner will implement when doing international trade. Firstly, about the general commitments on logistics services, Vietnam facilitates EU logistics companies to establish representative offices and branches in Vietnam. Secondly, for maritime freight services, Vietnam limit foreign ship into inland shipping services. In EVFTA, similarity to the WTO, Vietnam still excludes inland shipping from the scope of inland sea transport service commitments, thereby keeping the domestic shipping market mainly as the North - South sea transport route for Vietnamese shipping lines and transport enterprises. Regarding the commitment to open the market of services to support all modes of transport in EVFTA, Vietnam commits on the following four groups of support services: container handling services, warehousing services, goods transport services agency and some other services. 571
4. In conclusion, EVFTA is very important to help Vietnamese products, services and goods be competitive, develop in the European market and be able to form value chains. 3. Overview of Vietnam logistics industry Vietnam's logistics industry has grown by 12-14% in recent years, reaching a size of about 40-42 billion USD / year. The logistics industry currently contributes 4-5% of the annual GDP (World Bank,2019). In general, there are currently 23,000 logistics enterprises, of which nearly 3000 have international logistics activities (VCCI,2019). The main logistics fields are forwarding, inland transport, seaport and airport operation, warehousing, cargo management and international transport. According to a report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) in 2019, with EVFTA, it is expected that exports to EU countries will increase sharply in the upcoming time, positively impacting the market prospects and development of Vietnam's logistics industry. The open opportunity of bilateral trade between the EU and Vietnam could increase transport demand not only between the EU and Vietnam but also with the EU and Southeast Asia. Especially, after EVFTA, the need to improve the quality, conditions of warehousing and transportation will also be concentrated, especially in the context of Vietnam and Europe logistics industry still has a lot of gap (MIT,2019) Since 2014, Vietnam logistics have got promoted 10 ranks and ranked 39th/160 participating countries in the LPI, ranked 4th in ASEAN (Banomyong et al ,2015). To achieve this success, since 2017, Vietnam has conducted many projects such as attracting foreign investment, reform customs procedures and cooperate with foreign partners in infrastructure projects (VCCI,2019) However, logistics service providers in Vietnam consist of variety businesses, nor asset-based, more basic operations when compared to the international trends (World Bank,2019). There is a clear differentiation between Vietnamese enterprises and enterprises with foreign investment. Vietnamese businesses mainly provide 2PL, 3PL services; meanwhile, foreign businesses mainly do business in 3PL, 4PL, 5PL types. (Blancas et al,2014). Vietnamese logistics enterprises are relatively small in both capital and labour. Regarding capital, up to 77% of enterprises have capital of less than 10 billion VND and only 0.6% of enterprises have capital of over 500 billion VND. (World Bank ,2019). Regarding labour force, logistics enterprises with less than 50 employees account for 94% while the number of enterprises with personnel over 500 accounts for only 0.5%. (VCCI, 2019) Regarding market share, logistics enterprises in Vietnam have a clear differentiation in competitiveness and market share: - About 30 logistics enterprises of multinational corporations operating in Vietnam, with very strong competitiveness, provide overall logistics services, accounting for 70-80% of the market share. Meanwhile, they rent inland logistics services, such as inland freight forwarding, warehousing, seaport customs declaration (PWC,2019) - The remaining companies are mostly small, with limited competitiveness, accounting for about 20-30% of the market share. 572
5. Regarding costs, in report of Vietnam Logistics Association (VLA) 2017, Vietnam logistics cost are from 14.5% to 19.2% of GDP, much higher than Singapore 8.5%; Malaysia 13%. In 2018, Vietnam logistics cost grew up to 413,141 billion Vietnam dong, account for 20.9% of GDP (Hoa et al, 2020). On the other hand, in research of Nguyen HP (2019), the logistics cost is estimated up to 25% of GDP 2019. In comparison, logistics costs in Vietnam are 6% higher than in Thailand, 12% in Malaysia (Ishida et al,2019). The above results suggested that the logistics cost of Vietnam be above key competitors in South East region (Blancas et al,2014). The following reasons are key contributors to logistics cost in Vietnam being higher than those of some regional peers: port infrastructure (especially high-cost seaports); weak infrastructure connection; limited container handling and transhipment capacity; poor transport connections; low containerization due to lack of infrastructure and container handling. (Banomyong et al, 2015) According to the HCMC Cargo Transport Association, the high logistics costs, of which 40%-60% are transport expenses, are attributed to the loose link between transport modes, road toll fees are even higher than fuel costs. Meanwhile, seaborne and inland waterway transport modes help carry a large volume of freight at the lowest cost among the available transport options, but its connection with other transport modes remains poor. Railway transport, which is also a low-cost option, has seen the deterioration of its required infrastructure, and investors are not keen on the sector due to concerns over capital recovery (VCCI,2019) Moreover, the application of science and technology of Vietnam's logistics industry is still at a low level, mainly using electronic customs declaration software, vehicle positioning technology, email and basic internet Meanwhile logistics is a field that has applied science and technology very fast, many countries around the world have developed E-logistics, Green-logistics, applications of artificial intelligence, automated robots (Cameron et al, 2019). To assess the current status of using logistics services for agricultural products, the research team of Vietnam Logistics Research and Development Institute (VLI) and Ho Chi Minh City University of Transport conducted a survey and interview with 50 agricultural enterprises in Ho Chi Minh City, Mekong Delta, Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Binh Duong, Dong Nai,. As consequences, there are 72.7% of companies engaged in commodity import and export activities, the rest are companies operating as traders and retailers equivalent (36.4%), agricultural processing companies (31.8%) and specialize in distributing agricultural products to the market (27.3%). (VCCI, 2019) On the export activities, according to General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSOV), in the first 9 months of 2019, Vietnam exporting value reached 194.65 billion US dollars, particularly exporting to US market is highest, followed by China. In addition, many companies have also exported items to relatively difficult markets such as Europe and Japan (GSOV,2019) . The choice of Incoterms trade conditions (survey focusing on Incoterms 2010) also affects the scope of using logistics services. According to the survey, for export products, there are mainly 2 conditions of FOB (66.7%) and CIF (50%); besides, 573
6. due to the characteristics of fruits and vegetables, most of the use of Group C conditions (namely, CFR, or CIF). Particularly for the Chinese market, buyers can come to the garden (for example in Phan Thiet or Long An) to buy on the spot, load on trucks and pay on the spot according to EXW (Hoang Tien at al, 2019). Chart 1 The main market Vietnam products exported (Source: Vietnam Logistics Report 2019) The EU is Vietnam’s third largest trading partner. The main groups of exports to the EU are agriculture products, footwear, textiles, coffee, furniture and seafood (Xuan Khoat et al,2019). By 2019, exports agriculture products and seafood to EU reached nearly $ 3.55 billion, lower 10.6% compared to 2018 (MIT,2019). The reason for reducing index is about the quality of products not meet demand. (Xuan Khoat et al,2019). However, as soon as EVFTA conducts, Vietnam’s export turnover to the EU will increase up to 20% by 2020; 42.7% in 2025 and 44.37% in 2030. (tapchitaichinh.vn,2020). Among products exported to the EU, agriculture products are most affected by the efficiency of logistics activities (Nha et al, 2019). The characteristics of agriculture products and seafood are easily damaged, which require professional in logistics services. Nevertheless, logistics services supporting these products have expensive cost (kinhtedothi.vn,2020). Agricultural logistics experts implicate that the trend of the world is to use low-cost transport modes such as railways, waterways in domestic transport of agricultural products from the gathering points to export ports to reduce the cost. (Vaněček,2003). However, in Vietnam, the use of road transport is mainly in transport of agricultural products domestically, which has pushed up costs and impact on road transport infrastructure (Ishida et al, 2019). On the other hand, there are some bright signs when VCCI conducted survey with 50 agriculture enterprises about evaluating logistics costs in total enterprise costs, 48% of companies answer logistics costs for their agricultural products are less than 5%, only about 17% of businesses answer their costs from 20% or more (VCCI, 2019). Besides, it is also necessary to reconsider this factor, because companies may not outsource logistics 574
7. services, so this cost is calculated into production costs, some take advantage of the factory as a warehouse, so it is impossible to dissect the storage costs. (VCCI,2019). Therefore, the figures here may be positive, but it also reflects the fact that many enterprises in the agricultural sector themselves do a lot of services while the level of outsourcing is not high, especially with warehouse services. One of the most significant reasons why agricultural enterprises invest and exploit their own warehouses is due to the characteristics of agricultural products, such as the requirement for storage at different temperatures for each type. (Trang,2015). Agriculture enterprises with financial capacity will proactively invest in warehouses to meet the goods needs of enterprises. It also shows that the difficulty for enterprises that cannot afford to invest in warehouses and outsourcing is obvious, however, the problem of finding a logistics business partner to meet the requirements is very important. (Zhang,2006) 4. Identifying opportunities and challenges of EVFTA on Vietnam’s Logistics industry 4.1. Opportunities - Firstly, EVFTA plays a crucial role in enhancing market size, stemming from the large demand for logistics activities when the volume of import and export goods between Vietnam and the EU increases due to the significant reduction / elimination of tariff barriers. According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam's export turnover to the EU will increase by about 20% in 2020, about 42.7% in 2.25 and about 44.37% in 2030 (Xuan Duong,2017). In the opposite direction, although there is no detailed calculation, it is expected that import growth from the EU to Vietnam after EVFTA will also increase rapidly, as many EU products with strengths will be eliminated by Vietnam right after the Agreement came into effect (61% of tariff lines for machinery and equipment, 71% of pharmaceutical tax lines, 70% of chemical tax lines, ) (Xuan Khoat et al, 2019).The more bustling the import and export activities between the two sides, the greater the market for logistics services, especially international logistics services. - Secondly, Vietnam have more chance to attract investment from the EU, taking advantage of the partners' experience, management skills, capital, network when working in joint ventures with EU partners. With EVFTA, export turnover to EU countries is expected to increase sharply in the coming time, positively impacting the market prospects and development of Vietnam's logistics industry. Liberalization will also invite EU investors to participate in the provision of various logistics and maritime transport services for Vietnam market includes maritime enterprises, cargo/container handling services, storage and warehousing services (Van Hoi, 2019). Therefore, Vietnamese logistics companies will have the opportunity to cooperate, learn and call for capital from multinational companies and accounting for a large market share in the world logistics market from Europe. 575
8. - Thirdly, Vietnam's commitments to eliminate tariffs on vehicles, machinery, equipment and technology for logistics activities from the EU are opportunity for logistics enterprises to buy products for production at reasonable prices. Moreover, EVFTA is expected to help logistics companies save production costs, improve technology capacity, enhance self-implementation capacity, and reduce outsourcing services. - Last but not least, it is believed to access the market of logistics services of EU member countries when the EU opens many logistics group services for Vietnamese service providers (especially maritime transport services and international aviation services). The European Union (EU) is Vietnam's third largest export market. Especially, Vietnam-EU trade relations have developed very quickly and effectively. From 2000 to 2018, import-export turnover increased by 13.6 times, from 4.1 billion USD in 2000 to 55.8 billion USD in 2018. Notably, Vietnam's exports to the EU increased by 14.9 times (from 2.8 billion USD to 41.8 billion USD) and imports from the EU to Vietnam increased by more than 10 times (from 1.3 billion USD to 13.89 billion USD) (Xuan Khoat et al,2019) In view of the strong commitment to open markets in EVFTA, the trade relations under this agreement may increase transportation demand not only between EU and Vietnam but also EU to Southeast Asia. 4.1. Challenges - Firstly, competition in some aspects of logistics services may increase, due to stronger competitors from EU service providers. The EU is very strong in logistics, with multinational companies, large modern transports, accounting for a significant market share in the world logistics market. In the World Bank’s 2018 Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Germany ranked first, EU countries accounted for four of the top five positions (Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium), accounting for 14 of the top 20. Currently, many strong EU logistics enterprises have business activities in Vietnam, although Vietnam’s opening level in logistics under WTO is very limited (Wang et al 2018). After EVFTA, with the commitment to open up stronger, the competition from these companies with domestic enterprises will be even greater. However, competition is expected to increase mainly in newly opened logistics services, while for those already opened under the WTO, the competition may increase, but not significantly. - Secondly, in fact, most of Vietnamese enterprises currently do not provide complete logistics services, most of them only take the satellite role for foreign logistics companies, perform separate customs declaration operations, leasing domestic transport vehicles, warehousing, buying and selling freight (Cameron et al, 2019). Services that bring high added value such as packaging, order management, on behalf of goods manufactures to perform obligations to the third party , especially the “door to door” package logistics service has not been paid attention. Logistics activities do not form a continuous chain in the supply chain. (vlr.vn, 2018) In freight forwarding activities, the use of information technology applications in 576
9. transactions and management is an important factor, assessing the reliability and capacity of logistics enterprises (World Bank, 2019). Vietnamese enterprises often manage manually, the level of information technology application is still low. The world’s leading logistics service providers operating in Vietnam such as APLL, Maesk Logistics use specialized applications to manage and give customers the ability to see and control orders (visibility) at any time. The level of e-commerce applications (including EDI exchange and electronic bill of lading, electronic documents ) of Vietnamese enterprises is weak and inferior to foreign logistics companies, which are not capable of linking with other logistics service networks yet. Therefore, Vietnamese logistics enterprises can only do single services for foreign logistics businesses (Blancas et al,2014) - Last, the risk of not taking advantage of the EU’s opening commitments to the logistics services market in EU countries which is promising but requires high quality of service and indirect legal binding (on entry, the nationality of the employee ).In order to meet the needs and requirements of logistics required by European quality standards as well as seizing development opportunities, soon becoming a logistics center in Vietnam in general will need to be well-invested, improve competitiveness in many aspects: breakthroughs in technology, resources and enhance management skills, processes as well as policy support from the Government and other agencies (Van Hoi,2019). 5. Recommendations for Vietnam enterprises to develop Logistics. The opportunities from EVFTA for the logistics industry are significant, including market opportunities and business cooperation opportunities. It is possible that Vietnamese enterprises will not be the only group to enjoy these great benefits, but only a part of these benefits is already very large. In addition, new competition challenges from EVFTA may even be opportunities in the long term, with the nature as a reasonable pressure for Vietnamese logistics businesses to improve their competitiveness to survive and develop. For Enterprises In order to be able to utilize business opportunities from EVFTA, Vietnamese logistics enterprises need to conduct a plan to overcome the current limitations, thereby improving their competitiveness, especially: - Understand EVFTA’s commitment to open logistics services so as to identify new risks in competing with competitors from the EU in Vietnam’s logistics market (especially in areas where the commitment is more open compared to the WTO) or opportunities for cooperation with EU partners (especially in areas that are only open to joint ventures or business cooperation contracts) so that appropriate preparation can be made. - Having methodical plan and drastic action in improving service quality, professionalism, methodical service delivery, customer care. - Improve one step of information technology, enhance the application of information technology and information connection, especially with the global logistics network. - Strengthen training and retraining of human resources, ensuring professional capacity. 577
10. - Improve capital size, management capacity and scope of business activities, especially through taking advantage of joint venture opportunities with EU investors. - Find appropriate channels to increase links with businesses providing different logistics services (shipping lines, commercial agents, insurance ) - Actively participate in the process of elaborating and finalizing the Government’s policies on the administration of logistics activities and logistics-related activities (customs and trade facilitation, infrastructure development ) For the government Vietnam needs solutions and actions to facilitate the development of Vietnam’s logistics industry for at least the following reasons: - Firstly, logistics services are associated with many policy and management issues such as goods import and export procedures, vehicle control mechanisms, basic infrastructure (roads, ports, warehouses, yards ). These are mostly problems that the business itself cannot handle. Therefore, improving the competitiveness and operational efficiency of the logistics industry cannot be separated from the State actions related to these aspects. - Secondly, overall, reducing logistics costs in total production costs is also an important solution to save costs, improve production and business efficiency of almost all manufacturing industries, especially export production (agriculture, forestry, fisheries, processing industry, ). This is also an important task to develop an export-oriented economy like Vietnam. The solutions which Government needs to implement in order to promote the development of logistics services and reduce logistics costs include: - Having a long-term plan to develop infrastructure for logistics activities in service of freight (including roads, railways, inland waterways, inland seaways, international seas, air routes) - Planning and implementing concentrated investment/calling for investment in synchronous improvement of infrastructure systems, especially port infrastructure (seaports, river ports, airports, roads, railways); modernize port infrastructure (especially seaports), improve loading, unloading, transhipment, packaging and container handling - Continue to implement drastic administrative and institutional reform activities, especially in the fields related to import and export of goods (customs procedures, specialized inspection procedures, measures import and export management, rules of origin, one-stop mechanism REFERENCES 1. Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2004). Economic determinants of free trade agreements. Journal of international Economics, 64(1), 29-63. 2. Blancas, Luis C., et al. Efficient logistics: a key to Vietnam's competitiveness. The World Bank, 2014. 3. Banomyong, R., Thai, V. V., & Yuen, K. F. (2015). Assessing the national logistics 578
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