Chính sách phi thuế quan của các nước ASEAN và hàm ý cho Việt Nam

Nội dung text: Chính sách phi thuế quan của các nước ASEAN và hàm ý cho Việt Nam

1. NON-TARIFF POLICIES OF ASEAN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM CHÍNH SÁCH PHI THUẾ QUAN CỦA CÁC NƯỚC ASEAN VÀ HÀM Ý CHO VIỆT NAM Tran Viet Thao, PhD Nguyen Thi Phuong Ly, MA Thuongmai University Abstract After the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was formed in late 2015, ASEAN basically became a common market, comprising about 600 million people, with a total GDP of nearly US $ 2800 billion, creating a relatively synchronous production space, helping promote the common advantages of the ASEAN region. With the power of 10 Southeast Asian countries together with the removing of tariff and non-tariff barriers, a vast market has opened up for Vietnamese businesses in commodity exchange and trade, attracting investment and participating more deeply in regional supply chains. Goods, services, capital, investment and skilled labor will be freely circulated within ASEAN without any discrimination among members. Participating in the process of building this community, Vietnam has more opportunities to access markets inside and outside the region, thereby expanding markets, diversifying exports; stabilizing import sources and lowering import input prices, thereby contributing to economic restructuring and realization of socio-economic development goals. Keywords: ASEAN, AEC, Non-Tariff, Import and Export Tóm tắt Từ khóa: ASEAN, AEC, Phi Thuế Quan, Xuất Nhập Khẩu 639
2. Introduction The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015 is a landmark achievement in the ASEAN economic integration agenda. The AEC is meant to facilitate the free flow of goods, services and investments, as well as the flow of skilled labor and capital. The AEC promotes integration, competition, enhances connectivity, specialized cooperation, creates a balance and brings the ASEAN region deeper into the global economy. Therefore, AEC is the most valuable achievement of the ASEAN region, because it includes not only economic growth but also integration on the political, social and cultural pillars of all members. AEC's remarkable achievements so far can be clearly seen by eliminating tariffs on 99% of goods traded in ASEAN-6 countries (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) have also made significant progress. Tax rates in Vietnam have been reduced to 0-5% on about 90% of tariff lines and more must be done to take full advantage of AEC's potential. Non- tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade continue to maintain a strong presence in the ASEAN region - according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), nearly 2,500 NTBs are currently being implemented The study focuses on analyzing non-tariff policies of ASEAN countries since then, with implications for Vietnam, the study also shows Vietnam's achievements in trade and investment in ASEAN integration. The study also points out the advantages and disadvantages in this organizational input process. This study is based on a qualitative research perspective through analytical method that describes statistics and comparisons. Data sources used in the study are mainly secondary data from World Bank, Asean Secretariat, UNCTAD, etc. Overview of ASEAN economic situation The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established on August 8, 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN1 Declaration (Bangkok Declaration). The declaration was signed by the founding members of ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, also known as ASEAN-5. Brunei Darussalam joined the association on January 7, 1984, followed by Vietnam on July 28, 1995, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and Myanmar on July 23, 1997 and Cambodia on April 30, 1999, forming today are ten ASEAN member states (AMS) or ASEAN-10. The following four countries: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam are also known as CLMV countries. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was formally established on December 31, 2015, including the ASEAN Political Security Community, the ASEAN Economic Community and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. Over the next ten years, ASEAN integration will be guided by the 2025 ASEAN Community Vision and three corresponding 2025 Community Blueprints also known as ASEAN-5. ACE is a regional linkage model based on ASEAN's existing economic links with 640
3. key features such as: (i) AEC connects 11 areas where ASEAN has competitive advantages: agriculture, timber and wooden products, textiles, electronics, rubber, cars, footwear, tourism, transportation and aviation. (ii) AEC has innovations on tariffs, non- tariff measures, customs procedures, competition policy, intellectual property, services, investment, environment, labor market and human resource development. (iii) AEC includes many bilateral and multilateral agreements. (iv) It is expected that by 2025, AEC will further promote economic development in the region and create 14 million new jobs. Figure 1: Year of accession of each country to ASEAN Hình 1: Năm gia nhập của mỗi quốc gia vào ASEAN Sources: Celebrating ASEAN: 50 Years of Evolution and Progress (2017) Economic progress in Asean The disruption in global trade due to trade tensions reduced global GDP growth in 2018 to 3.6% and weakened the forecast for 2019 to 3.0%, for 2020 to 3.4%. (See Table 1). Financial risks caused by non-government sector debt and the company's default debts are also causing global economic instability. Growth in both the Euro Area and Japan was censored. For the Euro Area, lower growth was due to industrial adjustment, ??? pressure and Brexit uncertainty, while for Japan, this was a faint trade and disaster industry. The US economy, on the other hand, strengthened, driven by consumption and industrial production, although trade also decreased. However, the outlook based on the US yield curve shows an economic slowdown. While there are some signs of moderation, growth in Asia remains strong. Within ASEAN, economic growth in 2018 remained strong at 5.2%, driven by strong domestic demand and investment. In the context of slowing trade growth, the implementation of major infrastructure projects and national elections in a number of countries are expected to significantly support the regional economy. 641
4. Table 1: Growth of gross domestic product (GDP), in% Note: Growth rates of GDP in constant prices. p - preliminary, f - forecast. Sources: ASEAN Secretariat (November, 2019) for ASEAN and ASEAN Member States (AMS) up to 2018 except for Cambodia (2018) and Myanmar (2018) and ASEAN preliminary estimate 2018; Asian Development Bank (April 2019) for ASEAN preliminary estimate 2018, and forecasts for ASEAN and AMS for 2019 and 2020; International Monetary Fund (April 2019) for all others. Foreign direct investment and trade After a long period of modest, global trade recovery in 2017 proceeded to 2018, albeit at a weaker pace (See Table 2). The outlook for 2019 is still uncertain, awaiting the results of trade negotiations between the US and China. The recent tension of trade tensions has increased risks, with the US imposing a 25% tariff on imports worth billions of dollars from China, and China has announced plans to retaliate its tariffs on US $ 60 billion worth of products, effective from June 1, 2019. Preliminary estimates of trade in goods in ASEAN show moderate growth of 8.1% in 2018, from 15.0% in 2017. Singapore has maintained its trade momentum, while notable extensions have been observed in Laos and Brunei Darussalam. In services, preliminary estimates show stronger trade in services, with an upward trend observed across all ASEAN member states. Meanwhile, global FDI continued to decline, down 13.4% in 2018. Capital inflows into advanced economies decreased significantly by 26.7% compared to the same period last year, due to US multinational businesses moved to America. FDI to emerging and developing economies, on the other hand, increased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. For ASEAN, capital flows improved by 5.3% to reach USD 151.2 billion in 2018. 642
5. Table 2: Growth of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), in % Note: * Based on UNCTAD data excluding Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia and Lao PDR. Sources: Trade: UNCTAD International Trade Database (April 2019); FDI: UNCTAD World Investment Report (June 2019); ASEAN Figures: ASEAN Secretariat (May 2019) Non-tariff measures in international trade Non-tariff measures (NTMs) include measures that change international trade conditions, including trade restrictive policies and regulations, as well as policies that facilitate trade. NTMs are often incorrectly referred to as non-tariff barriers (NTBs). The difference is that NTMs include wider measures than NTBs. These measures are issued by the Government in a discriminatory manner to give priority to domestic suppliers over foreign ones. In the past, NTMs were mostly a form of quotas or export restrictions, so the word "barrier" was often used. However, up to now, policy interventions have taken more forms and accordingly, the term "measure" is used instead of "barrier" to emphasize that such measure may not necessarily reduce trade or benefit. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2010) defines: “NTMs are policy measures other than ordinary customs tariffs that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade in goods, changing qualities traded, or prices or both.” Non-tariff policies and measures include all trade costs related to policies arising from production to final consumption, except for tariffs. NTMs are classified according to technical measures (sanitary and phytosanitary standards, technical barriers to trade and pre-shipment inspection) and non-technical mesures. These measures are more clearly distinguished by hard measures (such as price and quantity control measures), threats (such as anti-dumping and safeguard measures) and other measures such as finance related to trade and investment. In fact, NTMs have the ability to "distort" international trade, whether the trade effects of the measures are protectionist or not. In order to identify and distinguish NTMs, detailed classification is needed. In addition, to facilitate data collection and analysis, NTMs are grouped into different groups such as hard measures, threat measures, sanitary and phytosanitary standards (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), and others. Each of these groups includes different types 643
6. of NTMs. According to UNCTAD, NTMs are classified into chapters, depending on the scope and characteristics of each non-tariff measure. Each chapter is divided into small groups to allow the classification of regulations affecting trade. Accordingly, NTMs are classified into 16 chapters (A to P; see Appendix) and each chapter is divided into groups with depth up to three levels (1, 2 and 3 digits). Although some chapters achieve a 3-digit classification, most stop at 2 digits. All chapters reflect the importing country's requirements for goods imported into that country, with the exception of measures for export (chapter P). Table 3: International Classification of NTMs Source: UNCTAD, 2016 Non-tariff policy of ASEAN countries Since the financial crisis and economic recession originated in the US in mid-2008, trade protectionism with trade restrictive measures have been used by many countries, including groups of developed and developing countries. This makes the process of economic recovery and international trade development more difficult. 644
7. Figure 2: Number of non-tariff measures in force in WTO member countries as of December 31, 2019 Anti dumping [ADP], Countervailing [CV], Quantitative Restrictions [QR], Safeguards [SG], Sanitary and Phytosanitary [SPS] [Ordinarias, Urgentes], Special Safeguards [SSG], Technical Barriers to Trade [TBT] [Medidas regulares], Tariff-rate quotas [TRQ], Export Subsidies [XS] Figure 1 shows that Asia is the region that uses the most non-tariff measures, with a total of non-tariff measures including TBT, SPS, ADP, CV, SG, SSG, QR, TQ, and ES equivalent to 14,172 measures; this is also the area where SPS, TBT, ADP, SG and QR measures are used the most. Countries in South and Central America use the second most non-tariff measures with a total of 10,470 measures; countries in North America and EU use non-tariff measures with a total of 9,460 and 7,951, respectively rank the third and the fourth. Currently, the EU is the region with the most effective number of TRQ measures out of all regions in the world. Countries in the Africa region use the smallest number of non-tariff measures, 4,765, less than the Middle East countries, which currently use 6,301 measures. Among the 10 ASEAN countries, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam are the countries that use many non-tariff measures in the trade protection policy. The remaining countries such as Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos are the ones that rarely use non-tariff measures. These countries use less than 10 SPS and TBT measures, especially have not used trade remedies nor tariff quota. Below are some basic characteristics of the use of non-tariff measures in the trade policies of some typical ASEAN countries in terms of the number of non-tariff measures used. 645
8. Table 4: Number of non-tariff measures in force in ASEAN countries as of December 31, 2019 ASEAN SPS TBT ADP CV SG SSG QR TRQ XS Total Brunei Dausalam 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Cambodia 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 Indonesia 130 127 37 0 9 0 0 2 1 306 Myanmar 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Philippin 449 284 2 0 7 11 21 14 0 788 Singapore 62 67 0 0 0 0 143 0 0 272 Thailand 383 669 43 0 3 0 112 23 0 1233 Vietnam 108 156 12 0 4 0 0 2 0 282 By the end of 2019, Thailand has about 20% of goods and 30% of import value affected by non-tariff barriers, mainly SPS and TBT barriers; more than 90% of agricultural products imported into Thailand are subject to these non-tariff measures, while only more than 10% of non-agricultural products are affected by non-tariff barriers. On average, each agricultural product imported into Thailand is affected by 9.6 non-tariff measures, while each non-agricultural import item and the country are affected by 0.5 non-tariff measures. According to WTO statistics, Thailand is the leading country in ASEAN in the number of non-tariff measures with trade restrictive effects. Specifically, Thailand has 383 SPS measures and 669 TBT measures being announced, 20 SPS measures and 40 TBT measures in force. Products such as food, cosmetics, beverages, etc. imported into Thailand must comply with the strict technical regulations of this market, including the labeling regulations. According to Thai regulations, labels of food products must be licensed by the Food and Drug Administration. In addition, Thailand has 43 anti-dumping decisions, 3 trade remedies decisions, 112 quantity restriction measures and 23 tariff rate quota measures in force. Regarding quantitative measures, Thailand still uses import licenses for goods such as raw materials, gasoline, industrial machinery, garments, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products. Imported goods such as food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and cosmetics must be licensed by the Food and Drug Administration. In addition, for some products when imported, Thailand also requires certification of origin, subject to additional fees, such as inspection fees for food quality and safety of meat products. On August 16, 2018, Thailand's Ministry of Environment announced that it would ban the import of 432 types of electronic waste from electronic circuits to electronic waste from old TVs and radios within the next six months. This prohibition aims to protect the environment in the context of China and some countries in the region have similar provisions. The Philippines has the second largest number of non-tariff measures in the region, with 449 SPS measures, 284 TBT measures, 21 quantitative restriction measures and 14 tariff quota measures. The Philippines rarely uses trade remedies, only 2 anti- dumping decisions and 7 trade defense decisions are in effect. The country attaches great 646
9. importance to the use of SPS measures on imports including live animals, plants and animal products, plants and organic agricultural products. The Philippines maintains tariff quotas on imported goods such as live cattle and poultry, beef, pork, lamb, goat meat, poultry meat, corn, potatoes, rice, and sugar. The Philippines is moving towards abolishing tariff quotas on rice. According to UNCTAD statistics, more than 70% of goods and the value of imports into the Philippines are affected by non-tariff barriers, mainly the TBT barrier and quantitative measures. 100% of agricultural products and about 70% of non- agricultural products are affected by non-tariff barriers. On average, an agricultural product item imported into this country is affected by 14.6 non-tariff measures. This shows that the Philippines has mainly implemented trade protection policies on agricultural products, in which the country uses TBT measures and quantity restriction measures being the main barriers to imported agricultural products. Indonesia, by the end of 2019, has 130 SPS measures and 127 TBT measures, including 52 valid SPS and 24 TBT measures. The country currently has 37 anti-dumping decisions, 9 trade safeguard decisions and 2 effective tariff quotas. Time to check the quality of imported goods in Indonesia is assessed to be quite high, for example, the average time to inspect children's toys is 80-90 days (USTR, 2018). In addition, regarding TBT measures, foods, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and chemical products when imported into this market need to be checked for Halal Certification to ensure there is no banned substance under Islamic Law and hygienic requirements are met in the process of production, packaging, storage and distribution. To be granted that certificate, imported goods also have to bear the costs of inspection and certification. This is a specific regulation in this market, becoming a barrier of many exporters in the world. In addition, for goods that are packaged food and fast food, the labeling regulations must be ensured, including the content of sugar, salt and fat in the product. Indonesia still uses import license as a measure to manage and restrict imports for agricultural and some non- agricultural products. Alcohol is a commodity that is controlled by quotas when imported into this market. Also according to WTO statistics, by the end of 2019, Vietnam has 108 SPS measures and 156 TBT measures, in which 32 SPS measures and 36 TBT measures are in force. Vietnam has 12 anti-dumping decisions, 4 trade defense decisions and 2 tariff rate quota measures in force. Among the TBT measures in Vietnam, there are 7 measures expressed by WTO members that express trade concerns on the grounds that these measures may cause trade damage to exporters, but all trade concerns by TBT have been addressed through discussions and considerations between Vietnam and the members expressing their concerns, or through Vietnam receiving members' comments to adjust in accordance with WTO rules so that disputes do not occur. Regarding trade remedies, Vietnam has made 7 anti-dumping decisions in force with its partners namely China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan (regarding cold-rolled stainless steel products), with Chinese and Korean partners (regarding galvanized steel products) and with Chinese partners for H-shaped steel items. Five cases in which Vietnam is using safeguard measures include: vegetable oil, monosodium glutamate, steel billet and long steel, 647
10. corrugated iron, and fertilizers. UNCTAD statistics show that about 50% of imports into Vietnam are affected by non-tariff barriers, of which about 60% of imports are affected by technical barriers. Vietnam uses more non-tariff barriers on agricultural products than non-agricultural products. Up to 97% of agricultural products, while only 57% of non-agricultural products, are affected by non-tariff barriers. On average, one agricultural product imported into Vietnam is affected by 12 non-tariff measures, while a non-agricultural product is only affected by 1 non-tariff measure. The implementation of commitments to facilitate trade in ASEAN has recently brought about achievements, helped to reduce costs and time for importing and exporting procedures. The time and costs require for importing and exporting by ASEAN members very differently. According to 2018 World Bank data on simplifying cross-border trade, Singapore is ranked 45th, Vietnam ranks 100th out of 189 countries surveyed in the world. Table 5: Time and costs to conducting import and export procedures of ASEAN countries in 2009 and 2018 Countries Time of Export costs Time of import Import costs completing (USD/cont) procedures (USD/cont) export (hours) procedures (hours) Year 2009 2018 2009 2018 2009 2018 2009 2018 Brunei 672 272 630 430 456 180 708 445 Campuchia 528 180 732 475 720 140 827 360 Indonesia 504 225 704 393 648 206 660 547 Lào 1200 69 1860 375 1200 71 2040 339 Malaysia 432 38 450 248 336 43 450 273 Myanmar N/A 286 N/A 572 N/A 278 N/A 667 Philippines 384 78 816 509 384 216 819 630 Singapore 120 12 456 372 72 36 439 260 Thai Lan 336 55 625 330 312 54 795 276 Đông Timor 600 129 1010 450 624 144 1015 525 Việt Nam 756 105 756 429 504 132 940 556 Nguồn: Doing Business Report 2010-2019 The ASEAN Trade Facilitation Commitment Program has called upon members country to simplify their rules of origin, to agree on product and technical standards. In this program, Member States have made efforts to conduct negotiations towards the establishment of the ASEAN Single Window with the aim of: (i) Agreeing the declaration 648
11. of information and data; (ii) Synchronize information and data processing; (iii) Agree on import and export procedures. It can be seen that ASEAN countries have achieved achievements in the implementation of trade facilitation in accordance with the ASEAN Community General Trade Action Action Plan 2025 with the application of technical assistance of WTO facilating framework. This is clearly shown by the fact that the time and cost of import and export procedures have decreased significantly in most ASEAN countries (except Myanmar because there is no reference data) in 2 years 2009 (the year of joining ATIGA). and 2018. However, at present, the enterprises in the sectors are still quite concerned about the way the ASEAN Single Window mechanism works, due to the following reasons: (i) The negotiation process to implement the ASEAN one mechanism is slow, because the more developed countries in ASEAN want to use their economic strength to create advantages in the negotiations, causing businesses to lose a competitive advantage. (ii) Enterprises Private uncertainty about the effectiveness of the ASEAN Single Window. The international economic integration process has helped Vietnam make significant improvements in the business environment and promoteed the trade facilitation. Although the time and costs of implementing import and export procedures have decreased significantly after 10 years of joining ATIGA, Vietnam's trade facilitation level is not high. Most of Vietnam's indices are below the regional average. This suggests that Vietnam needs to develop a trade facilitation strategy in line with international practices, improve the customs environment, enhance the qualifications of customs officers, and build a management information system. risk, in order not to be left behind compared with of the regional and world development level. Implications for Vietnam After 24 years of Vietnam's accession to ASEAN, the region has become one of Vietnam's leading important economic and trade partners. Compared to the time of joining the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1996, the total import-export turnover between Vietnam and the ASEAN region has increased by more than 9.5 times, from USD 5.9 billion in 1996 to nearly USD 56.3 billion in 2018 and USD 57.4 billion in 2019. In which, export turnover is USD 25.3 billion (increase 1.9%) and import turnover is 32.1 billion USD (increase 0.8%) in 2019. In addition to the benefits of economic growth, integration into the ASEAN economic region also brings positive impacts to Vietnam's export of goods in the direction of diversifying export commodity structure, increasing attraction from foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as expanding investment opportunities to ASEAN countries and business opportunities from outside; creating opportunities for businesses to improve competitiveness; accessing to science and technology resources, learning advanced management experience, contributing to improving the qualifications and capacity of staff and training high quality human resources. In addition, the positive impacts from AEC will contribute to making changes in the development and improvement of domestic policies, laws and procedures, more in line with the requirements of international integration. 649
12. Table 6: Trade and investment of ASEAN members 2018 Source: ASEAN Secretariat, UNICT In addition to extensive and comprehensive participation in intra-regional cooperation, ASEAN is also a nucleus to help Vietnam facilitate the economic, trade and investment relations with other important partners such as: India, Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, China, etc., through the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between ASEAN and these partners. It can be affirmed that the implementation of extensive and comprehensive economic cooperation of Vietnam with other countries in the region and around the world will not succeed as expected if it is not an active member in ASEAN. Although there are many advantages to creating positive achievements in the process of ASEAN integration for Vietnam, we also recognize many limitations and challenges caused by objective and subjective causes. Firstly, objectively, some difficulties can be mentioned such as: the protection wave in the world has not shown signs of decline, affecting multilateral and regional cooperation. In addition, although ASEAN is a large market, basically eliminating the tariff barriers, but in general, we do not have many key products with competitive advantages compared to other ASEAN countries. Regarding the labor market, we cannot compare with Indonesia, the Philippines; regarding services, we are inferior to Singapore, Thailand, etc. Secondly, subjectively, the competitive environment will become fiercer due to regional economic integration, especially when member countries have relatively similar production characteristics and common strengths in many areas of manufacturing and services. Meanwhile, the competitiveness of the economy needs to be significantly improved, related to many factors such as: infrastructure constraints, including hard infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, energy, telecommunications, information technology, etc.) and soft infrastructure (legal systems, administrative apparatus, one door mechanism, etc.); limited human resources; speed of adjusting economic structure so that economic growth benefits are more evenly distributed; limiting perceptions of levels, sectors, 650
13. businesses and people in harmoniously responding to the process of economic integration. The achievements that ASEAN economic integration has brought to Vietnam are very positive, but the challenges we face are not small. Therefore, in order to gain these achievements in a sustainable manner, ASEAN economic integration in the coming time needs appropriate orientations and policies. In the coming time, especially in 2020, when Vietnam becomes ASEAN President, Vietnam need to show the orientation to continue considering ASEAN integration as one of the priorities in the process of international economic integration, affirming the spirit of initiative and dynamism in implementing initiatives to implement the ASEAN Economic Community, contributing to promoting the character of a dynamic, central and potential ASEAN economic region. From building ASEAN into a central region, Vietnam continue to promote cooperation between ASEAN and partner countries, especially the EU when Vietnam is the coordinator in ASEAN-EU cooperation relations, and RCEP - the region represents 50% of the world's population and 32% of global gross domestic product (GDP). In addition to integration, interdisciplinary coordination requires further improvement. Vietnam needs to support businesses, promote greater participation of the business community, industry associations, etc. in the international economic integration. On the one hand, the Government will continue to support the business community to make better use of the incentives of FTA agreements within the framework of ASEAN and ASEAN plus, as well as deeper participation in value chains and supply chains in the region and all over the globe. However, businesses also need to actively train to improve their capacity, increase their competitiveness, and grasp policies so they can cope with the competition in both quality and quantity that economic integration brings. REFERENCES 1. ASEAN Economic Integration Brief Jakarta, ASEAN Secretariat, November 2019 2. Asian Development Bank (2019), ‘Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019: Strengthening Disaster Resilience’, April, retrieved from: sites/default/fies/publication/492711/ado2019.pdf 3. Canback (2019), ‘U.S. Recession Predictor’, April, retrieved from: https:// www.canback.com/news2/us-recession-predictor/ 4. Celebrating ASEAN: 50 Years of Evolution and Progress Jakarta, ASEAN Secretariat, July 2017. 5. Đinh Văn Sơn (2019), Báo cáo thường niên kinh tế và thương mại 2019 - Bảo hộ thương mại và tác động đến xuất khẩu hàng hóa Việt Nam, Nhà xuất bản thống kê. 6. International Monetary Fund (2019), ‘World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery’, April, retrieved from: Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019 7. World Trade Organization và International Trade Centre UNCTAD/GATT, 2018. World tariff profiles. World Trade Organization. 651